PGA $2.2M Millionaire Maker: Which Golfers Have the Best Odds Per Dollar at the 2015 Masters?
DraftKings has done a much better job at pricing the players based on the odds at the sportsbooks this year. Consequently, this has made daily fantasy golf tougher to beat consistently for most people, but it’s also helped us specifically target the long-ball hitters who post eagles at a high rate.
However, this week, DraftKings has some players who are fairly under priced. There are two reasons for this. First, because DraftKings has promoted their Millionaire Maker event substantially, they opened the game and released the salaries about a month ago. Therefore, DraftKings has not factored in events over the last month to the different players’ salaries. The only thing they have altered during the time period is put a few players highlighted in red who won’t be participating due to the fact they didn’t make it into the Top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings in time.
The second reason is that majors and WGC events typically have a few players who are not priced correctly due to increased international players. DraftKings only factors in PGA events into their algorithm. Therefore, if someone is flourishing on the European Tour but had a couple bad outings on the PGA, he will likely have great odds for an upcoming tournament.
The great thing about these factors are that not only are they easy to figure out, Augusta gives up several eagles as well. Over the last five Masters events, 31.4 eagles have been made each year, and only 20 were made last year due to some tougher weather. Basically, there should be around 35 eagles converted if the weather cooperates. No. 13 and No. 15 usually allow the most eagles, No. 2 gives up several as well, a few at No. 8 are yielded, and there are usually a handful made throughout the course elsewhere.
But the best part about all of this is that the players who have the best odds are all long-ball hitters. We can combine these aspects into making some great picks.
Jimmy Walker $8,900 – After winning the Valero Texas Open and quite frankly being arguably the best player on Tour in 2015, Walker is a must play for the Masters. Walker is 17th in driving distance and second in birdie or better percentage. This price is quite frankly a joke.
Lee Westwood $8,200 – Westwood has quietly been having a very solid year. He’s made every cut and finished no worse than T25 in a PGA Tour or European Tour event this season. He’s T51 in driving distance and T16 in birdie or better percentage. Those are all great factors for someone at $8,200.
Louis Oosthuizen $7,600 – Oosthuizen hasn’t played enough PGA Tour events yet to have stats in the rankings, but he’s averaging 309.5 yards on the European Tour this season, which would be third on the PGA Tour list.
Billy Horschel $7,300 – Horschel is 34th in driving distance and 62nd in birdie or better percentage, and he’s coming off a third-place finish at the Valero Texas Open. He’s also someone who can typically go deep and has an aggressive mentality.
J.B. Holmes $7,200 – Holmes is one of the hottest players on Tour. He has two second-place finishes in the last two months, and he is currently tied for the lead at the Shell Houston Open. He’s sixth in driving distance and 11th in birdie or better percentage.
Ryan Palmer $6,600 – Palmer’s 2015 PGA season reads like this: 7 of 8 cuts made, those 7 cuts made were all T25 or better and three of those were T10 or better (including most recently a T6 at Valero). Palmer is seventh in driving distance and 10th in birdie or better percentage.
Note: There is $4,200 left if you use all of these players, so make sure you use as much salary as possible and not use all of them in one lineup.View all posts by Nick Juskewycz