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NFL Weather Alert: Large Weather Impact

For week 16, we’re going to experience a weather impact in nearly half of games played. It’s a big curve ball, and is going to cause major adjustments in what you want in your fantasy lineups.

Most games are going to be rainy and windy, while some games there is going to be snow falling. Here are some general categorizations of each game.

Rain and Wind

NE @ BAL

DAL @ WAS

MIA @ BUF

NO @ CAR

MIN @ CIN

CLE @ NYJ

CHI @ PHI

Snow

PIT @ GB

Good Weather

DEN @ HOU

TEN @ JAX

IND @ KC (Some wind)

TB @ STL (Dome)

NYG @ DET (Dome)

ARI @ SEA (light rain)

OAK @ SD

ATL @ SF

How should this impact my fantasy lineups?

Exposing yourself to any passing attack of a game with weather impact is going to be dangerous. So QBs and WRs in those games are going to be out of the question for the most part. With less opportunity in the air, every RB should be upgraded. Bad weather tends to lend itself to a short passing game, so elusive receivers who get a lot of opportunities in the flat, slant, or flood routes can be good targets.

The snow in Green Bay is another monster. It’s expected that 3-5 inches will fall on Sunday, meaning we’re going to have a game reminiscent of DET @ PHI in week 14. If that game parallels this upcoming game, we can expect special teams to have a large impact, and RBs to perform very well.

Here are some weather special picks for this coming Sunday.

Antonio Brown

In the week 14 matchup DET @ PHI, we saw Lesean McCoy go off for 220 yards and 2 TDs while Detroit had a punt and kick return for a TD. Joique Bell was also successful but not nearly as much, registering 1 rushing TD and 70 yards along with 4 catches for 58 yards through the air. Antonio Brown is a really great pick this week because not only does he return punts, but he also the closest thing to Lesean McCoy on the field. While RBs Le’veon Bell and Eddie Lacy are bulky bruisers more like Joique Bell, Brown is an elusive WR who thrives all over the field catching the ball. I really like Brown this week to make an impact on a snowy game. Emmanuel Sanders also is a good pick with an impact in the kick return game but tends to be more of a deep threat for the Steelers, which should be neutralized.

Shane Vereen

In a windy matchup against the Denver Broncos in week 12, the Patriots relied on a heavy dose of the short passing game. In Vereen’s first game back from a broken wrist, he managed 8 catches for 60 yards. Julian Edelman also thrived with 9 catches for 110 yards and 2 TDs even with Gronk still in the lineup.  Edelman is definitely a good start this week but I like Vereen a lot too. Vereen is a very elusive RB who should take full advantage of slipping and sliding defenders in the rain.

Rishard Matthews

Miami tends to pass the ball a very large amount and has to do so quickly with the O-line issues they have had to face this season. Facing one of the worst pass rushes in the league last week that wasn’t the case, but the Bills have a seriously good defense and pass rush.  Charles Clay seems like a good pick, but the issue is the Bills Linebackers are actually quite good in pass coverage. With one of the best safeties in the league in Jairus Byrd, the deep passing game doesn’t seem that appealing either. In bad weather look for Rishard Matthews to emulate his week 12 success, where he had an amazing 11 catches for 120 yards. Hartline also could be picked.

The weather is going to have a huge impact this week, and by paying attention you should have a big edge this weekend.

View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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