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NFL Team Tendencies Analysis Week 1

One of my favorite tools at DailyFantasyWinners is our NFL Point Share Tool, which gives a good idea of what teams are good to target at QB, WR, RB, and TE. We have one game of data now in 2015 that will give us a little better of an idea of the pass and run tendencies of various teams. Let’s see how teams Run/Pass tendencies looked Week 1.

Note: Our Run/Pass share tool looks at the differences between a projected run play percentage and pass play percentage for each team and it’s actual statistics for the season. This is based on the margin of victory or loss for each individual team, as victory margin and run play percentage are highly correlated. 

 

Heavy Passing Teams

Philadelphia Eagles (17.9% more passing plays than projected by margin)

Although they were down early in the game, the Eagles passed a remarkable 76% of the time. That is a massive amount of the time, about 10% higher than the most pass heavy team in the league in 2014. Jordan Matthews hit value with 10 catchers for 106 yards and was robbed of a TD by a bad call. He should be as good next week. But the Eagles are definitely worth a deeper look, as there should be plenty of fantasy points to go around in the passing game.

Indianapolis Colts (13% more passing plays than projected by margin)

They were down the whole game but the Colts were still showed the tendencies of a pass heavy offense. Frank Gore was not very effective in the run game, and with TY Hilton possibly out next week there could be tons of value to be had for Colts pass catchers.

Miami Dolphins (11.4% more passing plays than projected by margin)

The Redskins defense was a lot better against the run than the pass last year, but the Dolphins passed it just over 67% of the time despite the game being close throughout. Lamar Miller got a bulk of the snaps but they are looking like a pass first team again this year, and that gives Millers value a hit. Jarvis Landry and Jordan Cameron look great next week.

Arizona Cardinals (1.9% more passing plays than projected by margin)

The Cardinals passed it only a little more than expected, but with Chris Johnson possibly the lead running back filling in for an injured Andre Ellington, we should expect even more passing from this Cardinals offense.

 

Run-First Offenses

Buffalo Bills (19.4% more run plays than projected by margin)

They got up early, but 65.45% running plays still stands out. With Tyrod Taylor at QB, it looks like the Bills will go very run heavy, with Taylor getting some of the carries. LeSean McCoy has some bounce back potential, although his offensive line is weak and his workload wasn’t great. If McCoy goes down the Bills backup RB will be a very appealing fantasy option.

Washington Redskins (13.8% more run plays than projected by margin)

The Redskins were a run first offense, although Alfred Morris shared some time with Chris Thompson and Matt Jones. This data may not cause me to love Morris, but it makes QB Kirk Cousins a bit less appealing. Pierre Garcon should have good value if DeSean Jackson is on the sidelines.

Green Bay Packers (12.1% more run plays than projected by margin)

This was probably the most commitment to the run we’ve seen from the Packers in years. They finally have a good running back in Eddie Lacy, and it seems like they are into utilizing him more this season. He had an average game Week 1, but I think he is in play Week 2 even against a tough Seahawks defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8% more run plays than projected by margin)

They lost by a boatload, but they never gave up on keeping the offense balanced for rookie QB Jameis Winston. That should really help Doug Martin, who has struggled the past couple seasons to regain the fantasy production of his rookie year. But if Martin continues to be the main running back in Tampa Bay, he should have fantasy value each week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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