NFL Team Pass/Run Tendencies Week 13

Each week, our NFL Sportsbook tool projects run and pass percentages of each team based on scoring margin adjusted data from 2015. I think the tool does a pretty good job making predictions on team pass and run tendencies based on historical data. But because of injuries and team makeup changes, the data doesn’t always predict the future well. This article will discuss what the projections tell us for Week 13 as well as my own interpretations of the numbers.

New York Giants: 71.39% Projected Pass Percentage

We have the Giants as the 2nd highest passing tendency in the NFL this week, 7.81% more than average. They face the Jets, who we have as the 2nd highest opponent pass tendency, 6.12% more than average. So it’s not surprising they have the largest projected pass percentage this week, even with the Giants as only two point underdogs.

Recent trends support this high projection. The Jets were only ran on 12.86% of the time last week against a relatively balanced Miami offensive attack, only allowing 1.3 yards per rush. The Jets have a devastatingly good run defense, bolstered by a now healthy Sheldon Richardson, so I would expect them to be passed on the most for the rest of the year. The Giants have the 6th worst rushing offense in the league, and struggled to run even against a bad Redskins run defense. I’d probably project the Giants at 74-75% pass percentage this game. Fantasy impact will be interesting if Darrelle Revis returns. Rueben Randle may get supplanted by Hakeem Nicks at WR, so the only good looking play may be Dwayne Harris, who has been playing heavy snaps in the slot the past few games. The Jets got killed by slot receiver Jarvis Landry last week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 48.00% Projected Rush Percentage

Tampa Bay has been a run first offense all year. Having a healthy Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, along with more experience for rookie QB Jameis Winston, will probably make them a tad more pass heavy for the rest of the season. Atlanta has been a worse run defense the past few games than they have this season. But with no real big injuries, I’d chalk this up to a solid dose of run heavy teams the past few weeks and some regression to their 2014 form. Atlanta has been crazy bad against RBs in the passing game, leading the league in receptions, targets, and yards allowed to RBs receiving. With their running defense seemingly getting worse, they are probably one of the best defenses to target RBs against. Doug Martin should be a very solid play, and Charles Sims makes some sense as well.

New England Patriots: 68.74% Projected Pass Percentage

New England has been the most pass heavy team in the league by a wide margin this year, partially obscured by their league leading average margin of victory. Their scoring margin adjusted pass percentage is 70.2%, nearly 5% higher than the Giants. So even as 10 point favorites, they are 5th in pass percentage this week. That ranking should probably increase adjusting for the Eagles injuries. The Eagles best CB, Nolan Carroll, is out for the year with a broken right ankle, and his early exit from last weeks game against Detroit was probably the cause of a 5 TD outing from Lions QB Matthew Stafford. Teams have had relatively average run and pass tendency against the Eagles so far this season, but given Carroll’s injury I would bet they get passed on a lot more the last several weeks of the 2015 season. With a ton of injuries to New England’s pass catchers, there should be a large amount of fantasy points to go around in the passing game, and therefore some really great values. I like Amendola a ton if he plays. If he doesn’t, Brandon LaFell, Keshawn Martin, and Scott Chandler should all be solid. I especially like Martin is Amendola is out. Keshawn Martin played Edelman and Amendola’s role in the slot last week, but didn’t have a lot of production going against Chris Harris, the best slot CB in the league. In a much easier matchup, Martin should be targeted a ton.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 65.09% Projected Pass Percentage

The Steelers are only 10th in projected pass percentage this week. but last week they had a remarkable amount of passing, 81.33%, despite averaging a solid 4.1 yards per carry and only barely losing the game. When Roethlisberger, Martavis Bryant, and Antonio Brown are all healthy, and with the loss of Le’Veon Bell for the season, the Steelers should be expected to be one of the heaviest and most efficient passing attacks in the league. It’s a bit questionable whether Roethlisberger plays this week against the Colts. Assuming he does, I’d expect a very heavy dose of passing. If he doesn’t, Deangelo Williams looks very good leading a more conservative offensive attack with Landry Jones at the helm. This is supported by a key injury on the Colts. Jerell Freeman, the Colts run stopping LB specialist, is almost certainly out this week with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. That should hurt the Colts run defense a lot, so there should be more running success against them. I like the Steelers offense in general this week, but I think Deangelo Williams is off the charts good if Roethlisberger ends up being out.

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Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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