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NFL Spread Picks Week 11

Part of individual player performance depends on team performance. The more successful a team’s offense is, the more successful we should expect their individual players to be. With that said, I think it’s important for a daily fantasy player to supplement sportsbook lines with their own objective evaluation of how they see each team performing. Here are how my opinions differ from the current lines as I see them now. I’m using Pinnacle for the current spreads.

Best Bets

Oakland -1 at Detroit

Detriot lost 2 corners last week and lost 1 more the previous week. They are really banged up in the secondary, and they were already one of the worst pass defenses in the league according to Football Outsiders. We should see a Saints level bad secondary this week against Oakland. Darius Slay, Detroit’s best corner, should shadow Amari Cooper and could shut him down, but Carr spreads it around a lot, which will take advantage of the practice squad CBs that Detroit will be forced to play. Oakland got T.J. Carrie back last week, who is one of their best corners. Overall, I think Vegas doesn’t adjust enough to the huge injury impact for both teams this week (a bit positive for Oakland, very negative for Detroit), and the line has already moved from Detroit -1 to Oakland -1, so bettors seem to be in agreement.

Arizona -5.5 vs Cincinnati

Pacman Jones is out for Cincinnati, which definitely hurts their secondary a bit. But most of the reason I like Arizona is I simply see them as one of the best teams in the league. Carson Palmer is playing like the best QB in the NFL this year. He is truly fun to watch because it’s hard to believe how accurately he throws every pass. Everything I see is on target, even on deep balls. Their offense is elite and their defense is solid overall. The defense is one of the most blitz heavy in the league, which is why they are 5th in the league in takeaways per game. I love Arians as a coach, and I see the Cardinals in the Superbowl this year.

Other Bets

New England -7.5 vs Buffalo

New England’s defense struggled hard against the Bills in Week 2, but they also forced 10 sacks on Tyrod Taylor along with 3 interceptions. That suggests to me that the Patriots really figured out how to neutralize Taylor, and that makes me think the Patriots shut down the Bills offense Monday night. New England is getting healthier on the offensive line, which should really help their offense move. The losses of Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman hurt, but I think Amendola fills in well for Edelman, although James White is not nearly the quality of player of Lewis. The Patriots have an average scoring margin of 14.9 this year, so it’s a bit hard to believe at home that they would only be 7.5 point favorites. But I think last weeks struggle against the Giants and the Bills success in Week 2 are getting a lot of people on the Buffalo bandwagon.

Atlanta -4.5 vs Colts

Another home favorite I like here. I think people are really overrating Matt Hasselbeck. He played in two games this season against two really weak pass defenses in the Jaguars and Texans, and barely had success against either. I see the Colts as a very bad offense and a bad defense, while Atlanta has a great home offense and a mediocore defense. The 4.5 point spread suggests these teams are close to even, since I don’t see it that way I am picking the Falcons.

Denver -1 at Chicago

Peyton Manning is one of my favorite QBs of all time. That being said, he looks like his career is over and he was easily the main reason the Broncos are one of the worst offenses in the league. Osweiler has benefited from watching Manning and picking his brain for a few years, so I trust he’s developed into a solid QB. Osweiler should also help the running game by being able to run the offense out of more conventional sets. Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte look like they are going to be out for the Bears, so I don’t see the Bears offense moving the ball at all against such an elite Broncos defense. If the Broncos offense performs at just an average level they should win this came easily.

No Underdogs??

I randomly did not pick any underdogs this week. I really do not think I have a bias here, I think it’s just one of those weeks where I don’t see a lot of underdogs winning. If I had to choose one underdog, it would be the Buccanneers +6.5. I think the Eagles may struggle if Jason Peters is out and with Sanchez at QB, but I also don’t believe in Jameis and the Eagles elite defense could easily neutralize them.

 

 

View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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