NFL Must Plays Draftkings Week 14
Another week, another big Sunday in the daily fantasy sports world. Draftkings has its Sunday 200 grand tournament, which has been getting an overlay every week, so you’re going to get some great value if you’re savvy enough to make the $100 investment. We finally have gotten past bye weeks so we have a full 15 game slate. That means lots of great places to find value.
Tom Brady ($8000) and Julian Edelman ($5700)
I have watched every Patriots game this year so I have a really good feel for whom to pick on the team. For the past decade, Tom Brady has been one of the best fantasy QBs in the NFL. This year, he’s been terrible. And it wasn’t just a new band of WRs bringing him down, he was flat out making bad passes. But it didn’t make any sense. Brady is getting older,but QBs continue to play very well at his age, with an even older Peyton Manning maybe having the best year of his career. So what gives? It’s starting to seem like it has been a fluke, as Brady has looked like… well…. Brady the past few games. With a great matchup against Cleveland, and with Brady’s price tag continuing to stay below elite level, Brady is a super easy pick at this point.
It’s easy to go with Gronk here as the pass catching pick, and honestly he’s probably a pretty solid one. But what has become clear over the past two weeks is that Danny Amendola is not taking the Wes Welker role on the team as it first appeared. It seems Belicheck has decided to go with Edelman at that position over Amendola.
That means, like last week, Edelman is going to get a lot of catches and a lot of yards. With a PPR format like Draftkings has, a guy like Edelman is really promising. He is still ridiculously cheap and I think a very under the radar player; if you haven’t watched the Patriots all year, you would think last week 9 catches for over 100 yards was a fluke. Cleveland’s pass defense is actually quite bad, with corner Joe Haden the only guy propping them up. It’s unlikely however that Haden will be on Edelman. It is nearly a sure thing sans injury that Edelman exceeds his value tremendously.
Matt McGloin ($5500) and Rod Streater ($4200) or Andre Holmes ($3600)
I’m going to say something I don’t think a lot of people would say: I really like Matt McGloin. He shouldn’t be good, he was barely an NFL prospect and he’s on a really bad Oakland team. But frankly, he played quite well against a not bad Cowboys team last week, with his top two targets being Rod Streater and Andre Holmes. The Jets are a sneaky good matchup for QBs. They don’t give up a very large amount of fantasy points per game to QBs, but that’s mostly because they haven’t played a lot of good QBs besides one against Tom Brady, who I explained earlier was playing quite badly. But they do something that’s a goldmine for fantasy QBs: They stuff the run better than anyone in the league, and they are bad against the pass. Oakland should be totally ineffective running the ball, which means they are going to have to pass, and pass a lot. Despite Miami crushing the Jet’s last week, Ryan Tannenhill threw the ball over 40 times. Expect McGloin to throw it a lot, meaning a lot of catches, yards and touchdowns. Streater and Holmes aren’t particularly good wide
receivers, but someone is going to have to catch McGloins throws, and these are the two most likely targets.
Jamaal Charles $8700
I have also watched every Redskins game this year (Redskins and Patriots are my two teams), and let me tell you something: Our defense is terrible. Our biggest weakness? The short passing game. The Redskins linebackers and safeties are by far the worst players at their positions in the NFL, so when a player gets in space they are not going to be tackled. Enter Jamaal Charles. Sure, his price tag is expensive, but he is going to kill the Redskins in the screen passing game and gash them with the run. McCluster and Knile Davis also seem like solid picks here, but Charles is going to be the sure thing.
Demarco Murray $7400
Another expensive running back, but worth it this week with a matchup against Chicago. Chicago has far and away the worst run defense in the league. Case and point last week giving up over 200 yards to Adrian Peterson. Murray isn’t Peterson, but he is a pretty underrated back who has fantastic running ability. The Bears struggled against a terrible Vikings team last week so expect Dallas to march in take a big lead. That’s going to mean a lot of carries for Murray. A sneaky factor here is going to be the weather at Soldier Field, it’s going to be at the very least near freezing temperatures and wind in Chicago is never out of the question. The only thing going against Murray is Jason Garrett’s coaching, which sometimes opts to have Tony Romo throw the ball 50 times a game. Hopefully that won’t be the case.
Jordan Cameron $4300
Everyone is going to be wanting Josh Gordon this week and for good reason. Gordon is a beast. But unlike Jacksonville last week, the Patriots secondary is actually quite fantastic, with a very underrated Devin McCourty, who is probably the best cover safety in the league. Aqib Talib is in a contract year and seems to be trying extra hard to earn some big money, so expect the combo of Talib and McCourty to shut Gordon down.
That being said, the Patriots linebackers are big, so they are not too good in pass coverage. Cameron has been quiet as of late after starting the year as the surprise top fantasy TE. His price on Draftkings is just astonishingly low. I’m calling this my must play of must plays.
I feel really confident in these picks this week. There are so many bad players in daily fantasy sports betting on NFL days this should be a great opportunity to make a lot of money. Good Luck!
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