NFL Daily Fantasy Week 12: Players at Each Skill Position You Want to Play But Should Avoid
One of the most common mistakes that sports fans make are that they are recently biased. This means that whatever has happened in the last week, few weeks or month means it will continue to happen. While sometimes that is true, more often there are other unconsidered influences that take place, which only results in temporary success for a player or team. This definitely applies to daily fantasy when we are making our lineups. We must remember that players have a certain expectation to perform at a certain standard based on usual circumstances. Sometimes players run hot. Sometimes players run cold. Most often, people judge based off of what they see recently rather than wait on an actual conclusive amount of data.
The purpose of this article is to get you to avoid the hot player that is just running well for this weekend. Here’s what I mean for Week 12.
Aaron Rodgers – The Packers are the hottest team in the NFL (okay, Patriots too), and Aaron Rodgers is carving up defenses left and right. But it also helps they have played at home against the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles. They both have two of the worst pass defenses, their defenses are banged up and both teams are very turnover prone. Green Bay now gets to go to Minnesota, and the Packers are -9.5. Seems like an easy pick right? Nope. The Vikings actually are completely healthy on defense now, they are 8th in pass defense and have the third most sacks this season (Packers OL is average in pass protection). I’m sure Rodgers will get to 20 FPTS, but to think he’ll be in that 30 FPTS range here is wrong, and that salary is better spent elsewhere.
Denard Robinson – I’m assuming everyone knows about Robinson’s hot streak by now. In the last four weeks, Robinson has a combined 72 carries, 389 yards and four TDs on the ground to go with his 5 catches and 30 yards. This adds up to about 16.5 FPTS per game. Robinson has done this on the Jaguars as an underdog each game, so this is incredibly impressive. Now the Jaguars are facing the Colts, the same Colts that let Jonas Gray punish them for 200 yards and 4 TDs. However, Robinson and the Jaguars are now 14-point underdogs, on the road and his potential will be limited. While Robinson is still a solid play in certain matchups, this is the perfect time for a dud considering how hot he’s been running on TD runs on a mediocre offense at best.
Jordan Matthews – This is a fun one to explain. Before the NFL season started, I thought Jordan Matthews was one of the most underrated NFL draft picks who could make a solid impact fantasy wise. Throughout October a lot of people thought Matthews’ one-week explosion against the Redskins was a matter of playing from behind and the matchup (somewhat true). Now I can’t stop hearing from people that he’s absolutely amazing and that he’s going to be people’s keepers in regular fantasy leagues (possible if you have no other options). But his snap count and targets haven’t changed very much with Mark Sanchez at QB. What’s changed? He caught TDs, faced arguably the worst defense in Carolina and took advantage of garbage time against Green Bay. Matthews is more ideal than a guy like Torrey Smith, but the fact that I’ve heard he’s as valuable as Kelvin Benjamin now is incorrect. This hot streak will not last, and even though Tennessee is a great matchup, I’m not going to pay his significant bump in price.
Jermaine Gresham – I’ll keep this simple, look at his receptions and TDs from last week (2 and 2). If A.J. Green was still out, I’d still like Gresham, but not anymore.View all posts by Nick Juskewycz