NBA Picks 1/28
We have a nice 7 game slate today, and there aren’t many injuries, so there aren’t going to be a lot of easy plays today. But that also means that if you do good and thorough research you can have a big leg up on the field. I’m going to dedicate this article to the less obvious choices of the day.
Lee is as consistent as they come, his best game of the season has been only 50 FP despite averaging 34 on the season. That isn’t great for large fields, but it’s what you want for 50/50’s and heads up matches. Lee’s matchup on paper does not look that good as the Wizards do not give up a lot of points to big men. But the Wizards play in the East which means they haven’t faced too stiff of competition. Lee’s performance has not correlated highly with DVP, but has some correlations with Effective Field Goal % allowed and Rim Protection, and the Wizards are in the bottom of the league in both statistics. Lee should be a very solid pick tonight.
I outlined in this article just how bad NOP has been against Centers this season. At the time I write this, it’s looking like Zeller will start in place of an injured Anderson Varejao. I think Zeller should be started in every lineup you roll out. He has an ideal matchup and is underpriced because of starter injury. That’s basically the absolute maximum undervaluation you’re going to get in DFS. Everyone’s going to want to start Hibbert, who should do well, but Zeller is going to be much better from a Points Per Dollar perspective.
Lost in the Victor Oladipo craze is just how good Jameer Nelson has been playing. Nelson is not young and out of the prime of his career, but he has really found an increased role with Vucevic out. in his last 10 games, he has went over 20 Fantasy points each time despite a salary around $6000 on most sites. He draws an ideal matchup against Detroit, who have given up a lot to point guards all season, and Nelson has a high correlation to DVP. Orlando is such a bad team their fantasy numbers tend to be low since they are blown out so much, but against a bad Detroit team they should be able to hang in there. I think Nelson is one of the best picks of the night.
There’s not a large amount of logic to this one, Duncan has simply performed well in his two previous matchups against the Rockets. Terrance Jones is a poor defender and shouldn’t be able to physically match up with Duncan. What I find most encouraging is that Duncan recorded 3 and 5 blocks respectively in the two previous matchups, so we should expect his performance to be supplemented by swats.
I hope these picks help you out tonight!
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