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NBA Matchup Analysis: Clippers vs Warriors Christmas Day

Tomorrow we have a typical big tournament Wednesday. However, since it is Christmas day, we have only 5 games to choose from. With that being the case, edge is going to come from deep research into each game. The Clippers vs Warriors game should be a high scoring game of the day which means a lot of fantasy points will go to someone. I will try to guess who will outperform there value based on analysis.

LA Clippers

The Clippers have been an average fantasy matchup this year, but tends to give up a lot more points to big men than guards. The large difference in points given up to guards vs big men suggests that teams that do play them have significant overperformance of their big men and underperformance of their guards.

The Clips have had very few injuries this year. Matt Barnes recently has come back from injury, but in the games he’s played this season his numbers have been down. However, with JJ Redick out we could start to see more of him. Jamal Crawford has moved to the starting lineup and has been seeing major minutes, around 40 a game. He hasn’t had a good matchup since the move besides Minnesota where he performed well, registering 30 fantasy points. For the most part though, the team has put the same players on the floor consistently so previous statistics should be indicative of future performance.

The best performances of the year against the Clips:

Kevin Love had 45 points, 19 rebounds, and 6 assists on December 22nd. Pekovic registered a fantastic game as well, taking 28 shots, 15 above his season average, scoring 34 points with 14 rebounds. They had a similar performance earlier in the year when Love went for 23 points 19 rebounds while Pekovic had 23 points and 10 rebo

Brandon Bass registered a 17 point, 12 rebound, 2 steal and 2 block game. Not incredibly impressive by itself but impressive for Bass.

Tristan Thompson scored 20 points with 13 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals. Again, not incredibly impressive but is for him. Thompson is an athletic big man who gets a lot of points driving powerfully to the hoop and being aggressive on the offensive glass.

David West had 24 points and 12 rebounds.

Andrea Bargnani 20 points, 9 rebounds, 4 blocks.

Kevin Martin 28 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists.

Zach Randolph had 26 points and 15 rebounds.

Nikola Vucevic 30 points 21 rebounds.

As suggested by the fantasy points given up breakdown, the Clippers appear to struggle most versus brusing, physical big men. West, Bargnani, and Martin were exceptions.

Warriors

Golden State has been a below average fantasy matchup this year, with a very large point allowance to point guards. This suggests an exceptional ineptness against point guards.

The Warriors have been without Andre Iguodola for about half the year. Iguodola is a fantastic defender, which suggests that the Warriors are actually a very poor fantasy matchup with Iguodola. The 12 games they have played without Iggy have been high scoring affairs with a lot of fantasy points to go around, skewing their numbers upwards. This is very surprising for a team that’s in the top 5 in possessions per game, suggesting they play at a fast pace. Top 5 in assists allowed per game further suggest that Golden State is a very good defensive team.

Best performances against Warriors with Iguodala

Kevin Love 25 points, 16 rebounds, and 6 assists. Impressive line but not too amazing for Love.

Zach Randolph 23 points and 11 rebounds. Randolph followed this up with 21 points 12 rebounds.

Andre Drummond 16 points, 14 rebounds, 3 steals, and 3 blocks.

Serge Ibaka 27 points and 13 rebounds. Russel Westbrook had 31 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists.

Pau Gasol 24 points and 10 rebounds.

Lamarcus Aldridge had 30 points, 21 rebounds, 3 steals and 3 blocks. Monster game.

While most teams stuggled against the Warriors, teams with great offenses such as Portland, the Clippers, and Oklahoma City each scored over 110 points in their matchups. But I had a very hard time finding anyone with the exception of Aldridge and CP3 who performed exceptionally well.

Previous matchup notes:

Very high scoring affair, 126 to 115.

Andre Iguodola 14 points 11 assists. However, some assists were on passes to Curry who was on fire from 3 point range.

Stephen Curry 38 points 9 assists but 11 turnovers.

Klay Thompson only 7 shots and 10 points.

Bogut and Lee average games.

Chris Paul had a monster game, 42 points, 15 assists, and 6 steals.

Deandre Jordan 17 rebounds and 9 points, but went 3 for 9 from the field.

Jamal Crawford 17 points on 7-14 shooting.

Conclusions

Cautiously expecting a high scoring game: Golden State is a terrible fantasy matchup for bad offenses, but because they play at such a fast pace there is good opportunity there. The Clippers have a great offense and last game was so high scoring I think we can expect more of the same.

But…… The Warriors are not a good fantasy matchup, and The Warriors have no one who matches up that well offensively with The Clippers. David Lee is 6’9” at best and is versatile with jump shots and dribble drives, and Bogut does not command the ball on offense despite being a more prototypical big man. Paul is really the only good great matchup play here.

Chris Paul: Did extremely well against Golden State last game and is an elite offensive player. Golden State is also just god awful against point guards. He seems like the best pick of the day.

Deandre Jordan: Jordan only shot 3 for 9 from the field but managed to grab 17 rebounds. If Jordan shoots better offensively we can expect a better game, with more points but similar rebounding numbers. I would consider rostering him, but he doesn’t enough factors in his favor to make him a must play.

Andrew Bogut: Bogut went 6/7 from the field last matchup and registered 6 rebounds in only 28 minutes. With Curry going 9-14 from 3 point land its unsurprising Curry scored so much, but we can’t reasonably expect that same production this game. With less effectiveness from Curry expect Bogut to get good opportunities. Jermaine O’neal stole a lot of minutes from Bogut last matchup but O’neal is injured now so 30 minutes should be guaranteed. David Lee also makes sense. Both are NOT great plays though.

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View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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