NBA Daily Fantasy: Matchup Analysis – Nuggets at Bobcats
One of the most intriguing matchups for daily fantasy players will be the Nuggets vs. Bobcats contest to kickstart the night.
The Nuggets are on the second of a back-to-back after losing in overtime to the Pelicans. Denver is completely healthy without the obvious exceptions to Danilo Gallinari, JaVale McGee and Nate Robinson.
Charlotte hasn’t played since Saturday, and Gerald Henderson is still out. The Bobcats are a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 210.
The Bobcats defeated the Nuggets in Denver 101-98 back on Jan. 29. Denver’s statistics from the previous matchup shouldn’t be taken too seriously. Lawson was out with a rotator cuff injury, and this was the game Robinson tore his ACL six minutes in. This is why Randy Foye played an extended 43 minutes and dropped 33 points to go with seven assists. It’s also why Evan Fournier also logged 38 minutes and posted 19-6-5-3. Tonight, we will see Foye be reduced back to 38-40 minutes, Fournier to 15-20 min and Lawson and Brooks getting their usual PG minutes.
The one noteworthy player is Timofey Mozgov, who recorded 15 points and 14 rebounds in 27 minutes off the bench. Mozgov is now starting for Denver, but hasn’t been playing starter-type minutes. However, Mozgov was the one guy who could match up with the hefty Al Jefferson and we could see a similar trend tonight.
As for Charlotte, Kemba Walker missed the previous contest with an ankle injury. Ramon Sessions got the start, who is now with the Milwaukee Bucks. This gave Jannero Pargo some minutes, but everything else was relatively the same as it is now (minus the Henderson injury). Jefferson, as expected, had a monster game of 35-11-2-2.
(All salaries via DraftKings)
Al Jefferson $9,200 – Simply a no-brainer here. If you’re concerned about his 27.25 FPTS performance against Memphis, know that the Grizzlies run the fewest possessions per game, they allow the least FPTS to centers and Jefferson only played 27 minutes in a blowout. The Nuggets run the most possessions per game besides the 76ers when Lawson is in the game and are bottom-four in FPTS allowed to PFs and Cs. Go look at any box score involving the Nuggets and you will see the best post player have monster games. Big Al has another big game.
Chris Douglas-Roberts $3,700 – With Henderson out again, CDR should get the start. In his last three games, he’s played 30.7 minutes and posted 27.6 FPTS. Someone posting just under 0.9 FPTS per minute with starter minutes against Denver should have a much higher salary than $3,700.
Ty Lawson $8,000 – I should note that I don’t necessarily love this play, but Lawson will do much better than the 35.5. he posted versus the Pelicans. He got his minutes and assists, but just had an off night shooting the ball and allowed six turnovers. The Bobcats are 20th in FPTS allowed to PGs, which is tied with C for the most FPTS allowed at any position for Charlotte. Lawson has been on an absolute terror since returning from his rib injury. Some people will fade Lawson tonight since his salary increased to $8,000 and it’s against Charlotte, but he’s still in line to do better than most may think. And if you believe players try harder in front of people they know, Lawson reportedly has eight friends in attendance tonight (Lawson went to UNC and the game is at Charlotte). Either way, he should have a field day against Walker.
Timofey Mozgov $3,800 – Along with having a superb game against the Bobcats last time, Mozgov matches up well in terms of Charlotte’s FPTS allowed to Cs. Foul trouble is always a concern going against a guy like Jefferson, but Mozzy hasn’t had more than three fouls in his last nine games and has faced guys like DeMarcus Cousins, Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah. Jefferson is also a big man who camps out in the paint, which means there will be more rebounding opportunities for Mozgov. Granted Mozgov’s ceiling is probably around 30-35 FPTS, but with a near-minimum salary, he’s a great play.
Decent Plays for 50/50s & H2Hs
Josh McRoberts – $4,400 – As long as the game isn’t a blowout, McRoberts is always getting 30-plus minutes. He’s somewhat of a role player, but going against Faried in a fast-paced game is always a good sign. McRoberts also has a huge size advantage on the boards. As someone who shows decent correlation based on his opponent and rarely duds, he’s a safe solid choice.
Randy Foye $5,200 – I wrote last week on how Foye’s salary shouldn’t decrease $1k just because Lawson is back. Yes, he might take away a few FGA, but Foye gets significantly better looks from distance as a result and is a much better catch-and-shoot scorer. The players seeing the biggest minute reduction upon Lawson’s return have been Brooks and Fournier. Concerned about his 17.25 FPTS in 45 minutes yesterday? Like Lawson, it’s variance with his off-shooting night. Foye is still someone capable of getting you 35 FPTS while playing 38-40 minutes. Going against CDR, who is not nearly the defender Gerald Henderson is, Foye at worst-case scenario (not including injury) will at least get you 25 FPTS.
Kenneth Faried $7,000 – No one is benefitting more from Lawson’s return than the Minimal. These two have played with each other the last three years and thrive in the up-tempo scheme. Faried has posted over 30 FPTS in the last five games. However, despite him scoring a lot more and taking more field-goal attempts, he’s benefitted from a lot of ideal matchups. The Pelicans, Lakers, Mavericks, Timberwolves and Trail Blazers all run a high volume of possessions or give up a lot of FPTS to PFs. Charlotte does neither and Faried only had six points and six rebounds last time against the Bobcats (granted Lawson was out). I’ll buy Faried for 30 FPTS tonight, but that’s pretty much his ceiling. Since his salary is up to 7k when he only contributes in two statistical categories and that a lot of people will be recently biased toward him, you can get an edge elsewhere.
Wilson Chandler $5,800 – Chandler has been on a nice hot streak of his own having scored over 30 FPTS in his last four games. Again, like Faried, Chandler has benefitted from the matchups and Michael Kidd Gilchrist is Charlotte’s best defender. Chandler had an off game versus the Bobcats last time with nine points, five rebounds and three assists in 32 minutes. Best-case scenario, Chandler gets 30-35 FPTS as opposed to 40-45. I wouldn’t risk it and I think there’s a better chance Chandler finishes around 25 FPTS tonight.
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