NBA Daily Fantasy 3/28: Sked’s GPP Lineup
As there always is on a Friday night, there are a ton of games to choose from, which means there are great plays everywhere. One of my GPP lineups tonight on DraftKings involves having a big three and surrounding them with low-salary plays. Again, it’s risky to use five guys at $4,600 or less, but that’s why it’s a GPP lineup. Here’s what it is:
(All salaries via DraftKings)
Kevin Love $11,100 – Gorgui Dieng may be the hot player and might be slightly taking away from Love’s upside. But it was only three games ago when Love put up 72.5 FPTS against the Phoenix Suns. He’s had more games where he’s met or exceeded his expected salary than fell below it while Dieng has been involved. Don’t fall into the recency biased trap, especially when one of Love’s below average games were against the Memphis Grizzlies. Because tonight, Minnesota is at home against the Los Angeles Lakers, and we all know how bad they are up front. Love also has the highest increased projection in DvP of any player tonight.
LeBron James $10,100 – Speaking of which, LeBron has the second-highest increased projection in DvP of all players. The Heat are 8.5-point favorites and not that LeBron doesn’t play well every night, but he’s particularly exceeded in the three previous games versus the Pistons in terms of all stats. Plus with Mario Chalmers, Ray Allen and Greg Oden (doesn’t really matter) all out and Dwyane Wade as a GTD (classic), LeBron will likely be taking an increased scoring load one way or the other.
Russell Westbrook $8,200 – Before I talk about Westbrook, I should mention I went back-and-forth between him and Tim Duncan. But in the end, while I think both are fantastic plays, there are better value plays at power forward and center. Westbrook has put up over 42 FPTS in seven of his last eight games and has put up as much as 69.25. The Thunder are -12 against the Sacramento Kings and may not have Isaiah Thomas. Not that Thomas is a great defender, but the Kings’ backcourt could be particularly limited and inexperienced on the road. Westbrook, like Love and LeBron, is on triple-double watch tonight.
Amar’e Stoudemire $4,600 – I’m not saying Stoudemire is a good pick just because he’s going back to Phoenix. He’s still playing 30 minutes per game, the Suns play at a fast pace and he has upside of getting close to 40 FPTS.
Jordan Hill $4,300 – Honestly, I wish there was a way I could avoid this pick. Everyone is going to play him after last night’s performance. But I also can’t just ignore that Minnesota’s frontcourt defense is terrible and that he’s gone over 30 FPTS in three of his last four games. He could bust if Mike D’Antoni makes one of his random rotation changes, but his salary is so low you should be fine.
Darrell Arthur $3,600 – Everytime I write about the Nuggets, the word, “injury” comes up every time. While Wilson Chandler and Jan Vesely are still on that list with the other players who are done for the year, now Timofey Mozgov is out with the flu. Realistically, Quincy Miller and Anthony Randolph are both good plays here alongside Kenneth Faried, but Arthur should get good minutes regardless. He’s higher up on the pecking order than Randolph, he plays the best defense of any of the available Denver bigs and he should play in a blowout or not.
D.J. Augustin’ $4,600 – Augustin is projected to do very well in terms of DvP tonight and has tremendous upside off the bench. He typically does better against opponents that run the floor since he does well in transition too. The Bulls are -4.5 at home. Those are both good signs for a point guard.
Austin Rivers $3,000 – Assuming Eric Gordon and Brian Roberts are out, Rivers should start at point guard. Playing the Jazz at home as 7-point favorites with decent per 36 numbers, he’s a solid play.
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