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NBA 3/20 Pick Two

We only have four games tonight, which makes it difficult to get a really good lineup in. Luckily, there are a lot of injuries tonight so there are lot of good value plays out there, but that also means making a lot of tough choices. So in this article, I’m going to take two people at the same position and say who I would play.

Omer Asik over Gorgui Dieng

Dwight Howard is out tonight, which means Omer Asik will start tonight for Houston. Pekovic is questionable with an ankle injury, so if he plays, Asik is clearly the start. But let’s assume Pekovic doesn’t play. In the only game without Dwight this season, Asik had 12 points and 11 rebounds in only 28 minutes in a good matchup against Utah. He goes up against Dieng who managed to give up 7 points, 14 rebounds, 1 steal and 3 blocks to Samuel Dalembert in only 21 minutes.  In two games without Pekovic, Dieng posted a double double each time, adding 2 steals and 5 blocks. Houston also is in the top 3rd of blocks per game given up to Centers, which bodes well for Dieng.

The bottom line for me is that Asik has a few clear advantages over Dieng.

  • Asik has not real backup tonight, while Minnesota has rolled out Cunningham at Center in the past.
  • Asik has more points upside than Dieng. Dieng averaged 6 shot attempts in his two starts, while Asik had 12 in his one.
  • Dieng appears to be a very good matchup while Asik certainly isn’t.
  • Houston is favored by 7.5 points. As I researched in this post, teams with blowout exposure are favorable to big men.
  • Trevor Ariza over Chandler Parsons

    Both Ariza and Parsons have favorable injury impacts with Nene and Howard both out. Ariza and Parsons both had similarly solid previous matchups. From a DVP perspective, Parsons definitely has the edge although Ariza’s matchup certainly isn’t bad. But what pushes Ariza over Parsons is how unused Parsons was in the offense the only game they played without Howard. Parsons only registered a 9.1% USG in a great matchup against Utah. I think ultimately both players could play well but the one game we have without Dwight doesn’t look good for Parsons’ production.

    Kevin Durant over Kevin Love

    It’s very likely you will have to pick between the two here, but I think Durant is a better play. Both matchups seem about equally good on paper, but Cleveland is going to be without Luol Deng, and instead start Alonzo Gee, who is a terrible defender. Durant posted near triple double numbers in the previous game against the Cavs. Love’s previous matchups have not been as solid, failing to break 50 fantasy points and only averaging 1.5 assists in those 2 games. Love’s rebounding numbers have also suffered with Dieng in the lineup, only managing an average of 9 rebounds despite one game going into overtime. Without rebounds and assists, Love really does not look good tonight.

    Good luck tonight!

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    View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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