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NBA 1/10: Matchups and Correlation

One of the most popular stats to use when deciding to use is Defense vs Postion (DvP). And with several games tonight where star players have great matchups, I’m sure a lot of people will go with certain players on DvP alone. However, Fantasy Winners has been working on a correlations statistic recently that evaluates what stats matter to some players more than others, and which stats don’t matter to some players at all. Below are players that may seem like good plays tonight because of DvP, but may not be.

DvP Irrelevant

PF/C

Blake Griffin – Many people will start Griffin tonight because he’s going up against the Lakers, who are terrible against big men. However, after running correlations on Griffin, it appears his stats have almost no correlation to DvP, Team FPG Given Up, or Pace of play. Now I’m not saying don’t play Griffin, with Paul out it seems like he’s been the go-to player on the Clippers. However, if you’re playing him because of the matchup, you should probably reconsider. He’s also priced high on all sites. I personally will not have him in any of my lineups.

Alternatives at PF/C
DeAndre Jordan – Highly correlated to DvP against C’s and Pace.
Anthony Davis – Highly correlated to DvP against PF and Cs and D efficiency, both areas Dallas Struggle.

SG/SF

Evan Turner – Turner is another player people will be using because of his matchup, Detroit gives up more points to SF than any other team. However, Turner’s performance are not correlated to DvP to SF at all, nor are his stats correlated to pace of play. He is a decent price in a fast paced game however, so I don’t necessarily think you shouldn’t use him, just that it’s not the dream matchup that it looks like.

Alternatives SG/SF
Tyreke Evans – Jrue Holiday is out and someone has to pick up the slack. Roberts is the starter but Evans should get big minutes.
Josh Smith – Correlates well with Team FPG Given Up and DvP SF, also does better against bad teams.

Highly Correlated

Brandon Jennings – Jennings has a great matchup in Philly and he correlates well with both DvP to PG and Possessions Per Game, both areas where Philly is the worst in the league. He had a 20/6/12 line last time they played, and my guess is he will exceed that stat line tonight.

Kyrie Irving – Irving correlates highest with team Drtg. Utah has by far the worst Drtg in the league. I’m slightly worried about whether Luol Deng will take away from Irving, but on DraftKings his salary is only $6,900 so he has great value. On Fanduel, his salary is $8600, so I wouldn’t necessarily play him there.

Cheap Must Plays

Darren Collison – at only $4700 on DraftKings you have to play him, he’s topped 30 FPs every game since Paul has been out.
Brian Roberts – min salary on both Fanduel and DraftKings and has per 36 min numbers of 15/3/6. He should hit value easily.

DraftKings is offering a 100% deposit bonus up to $600 if you sign up through Fantasy Winners. With the NBA season just getting under way, now is a great time to get into fantasy NBA on Draftkings. Use our link to sign-up today!

View all posts by Max J Steinberg
Max J Steinberg

About the Author

Max J Steinberg Max Steinberg is a professional poker player and a top Daily Fantasy player who uses his creativity and mathematical abilities he cultivated as a poker player to win money on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He already has several big tournament scores to his name including the Victiv Bowl and countless MLB Monster wins. Follow him on twitter @maxjsteinberg.

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