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NBA 1.2 Million DFBC Picks

Tonight on Fanduel we have the biggest NBA DFS tournament of all time, a 1.2 million guaranteed prize pool tournament with 120,000 dollars going to first place. We’re going to have a thrill ride tonight with over half the games starting at or before 7:30 ET, with a wild finish of Dallas @ Lakers to end the night.

So in this article I will be focusing on picks for this tournament, and not necessarily the best plays of the night overall.

Shawn Marion ($5200)

My guess is given the crazy good matchups for Lebron and KD that each of those guys is going to be over 50% owned. Both should have great games, but with that much salary going towards two guys, fading them may be a good idea, because the probability of them both having bad games is actually not that small. And if they do, you are basically certain to do well.

Enter Marion, who has a fantastic matchup with the Lakers. His salary has been on the way down despite showing 40+ fantasy point potential. The Lakers are also without Kaman and Gasol, which means Kelly will probably get the start at PF. With such a small lineup, we may see some Dirk at Center and Marion at PF, as we saw against OKC a few games ago when Durant played PF. That means a lot more minutes for Marion.

Chris Bosh ($6500)

This is mostly a hedging strategy. If Bosh has a great game, it makes it less likely Lebron will have a great game, so you increase your upside of fading Lebron. But there’s also good reason to pick Bosh tonight. Gorgui Dieng is now starting for the T’wolves, and he has been a very bad fantasy defender. Nearly every game he has played the opposing Center has hit value or smashed it. Here’s a few.

Markieff Morris: 38.6 FPs

DeAndre Jordan: 44 FPs

Marc Gasol: 68 FPs in 50 minutes over 2 games.

Samuel Dalembert: 34.8 FPs

For a guy who has touched 50 fantasy points this year, his salary is incredibly reasonable. And with a great matchup, he seems like a great play.

Gordan Hayward ($6900)

Hayward hasn’t been setting the world on fire recently, but he’s definitely a great pick tonight. Without Anthony Davis tonight, New Orleans should be thought of as a much worse fantasy defense, on par with a mini Philly or Lakers. Hayward has 60+ fantasy point potential and with a home matchup against NOP that certainly is plausible. But with such obvious plays like Ellis and Harden, I don’t think he’s highly picked tonight.

Rajon Rondo ($8100)

Rondo is going to be highly picked tonight, there’s no doubt in my mind of that. But because of so many great PG picks tonight, I suspect he’ll be more in the 20-30% range, which is not too bad. His matchup is just perfect. He faces the best PG matchup in the league at home and he plays on a bad enough team where the game actually may be close. You really can’t get much better than that with Rondo, who’s price is systemically too low because of his minutes restrictions he’s faced all year. He doesn’t have any now, and should go off pretty huge.

Good luck tonight! Hope these picks help you win!

View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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