Must Plays DraftKings NBA Wednesday Dec 4th

Wednesday, the biggest day in NBA DFS, has come around and to win today you’re going to want well-researched picks. DK can have some very wonky pricing so there are going to be a lot of great plays tonight. There are a lot of cheap great picks so tonight you’re going to want to mix in big salaries with little salaries to make your team work.

Andrew Bynum $4600

This is a risky pick, but I think it’s the right one. Denver gives up an insane amount of points to big men, with terrible defenders like Faried and Hickson getting a ton of minutes. Bynum had a great game against Chicago with a 48 fantasy point game, which is impressive with an average matchup like Chicago. Bynum has knee problems and the Cavs have been restricting his minutes but that’s looking like its coming to and end after he got 30 minutes in a back to back at home against Chicago after Boston. It’s been 5 days since their last game so there’s no reason to think Bynum won’t get big minutes again. It seems like an eternity ago but Bynum was one of the best big men in the game 2 years ago, averaging nearly a 19/12/2 stat line. If he can even get close to returning to that form, he’s going to be great value. I feel very confident in this pick.

Timofey Mozgov $3400

Mozgov has had two monster games in a row, 45 and 50 fantasy points respectively, yet he’s still only priced $3400. Last nights game was a blowout so he got a lot of garbage time, so Mozgov’s value is going to be a bit overblown. But given that tonight’s game against a terrible Cleveland team is also likely to be a blowout this matchup should work in his favor. J.J. Hickson is currently starting but he is nothing special and is terrible defensively, so it would not be surprising to see Mozgov start to get more minutes than Hickson even with a bench role. Really easy pick, best pick of the day.

Louis Williams $4200

Williams price has been down because he started the year injured. DK tends to price in demand for a player into his pricing and since injuries cause zero demand his price has been slow to rise. Williams averaged about 25 FPPG last year with the Hawks and there’s no reason to think he won’t be able to match that on practically the same Hawks team. Atlanta has a great matchup against the Clippers who are 7th in FPPG given up. Watch the injury reports though because if Korver returns tonight, which is questionable, I would stay away from Lou.

Brandon Knight $5000

Milwaukee is a team to keep a close eye on because they are completely riddled with injuries and do not have Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings anymore. When team structures completely change DFS websites have a hard time valuing the new starters. Coach Larry Drew has been frustratingly not sticking to a solid rotation but it looks like that’s changing as the season goes on and more injuries pile up. Knight is finally starting to get 30 minutes a game and is filling up the stat line. He’s a young player with tons of upside, and has taken on a large role with the team. Detroit is a great matchup for point guards so expect Knight to be great value tonight.

Ty Lawson $8200

Lawson draws a great matchup against Cleveland tonight. Cleveland is god awful on defense which tends to mean a lot of assists. Cleveland is in fact top 3 in assists given up per game with 25.2. That should mean easy pickings for Lawson. I’m a bit afraid of a blowout here but he really should be in the $9-10k range given he averages 39.1 FPPG. It’s really easy to imagine a 50 point or better game from Lawson tonight.

Andre Drummond $7600

Drummond gets a great matchup against Milwaukee who gets dominated by good big men. Drummond is a young player who has really come on strong this year, going from averaging 7/7 in his rookie year to 12/12 this year, a remarkable improvement. It’s important to note at one point Drummond was projected to be the #1 pick in the NBA draft, so he is a tremendous talent. He only had 27 points against Milwaukee last game but he got into foul trouble and Milwaukee had a much broader rotation in that game, causing less time for the Detroit starters. With a much tighter Milwaukee rotation expect a beastly game reminiscent of his 71 point game against Philadelphia.

With these picks and your own research you should come out a big winner tonight.

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View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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