MLB Trades: Stock Up/Down
What an eventful MLB trade deadline! Several clubs made significant moves in order to gear up for their run at the World Series. Many of these will have an impact on their fantasy value.
Which ones? Let’s take a look.
(All salaries via Fan Duel)
Yoenis Cespedes (Oakland to Boston) $4,200 – Cespedes’ salary has climbed all the way to $4,200. It’ll be interesting to see where he gets placed in this lineup. Ideally, third makes the most sense between Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz. Cleanup is a possibility too between Ortiz and Mike Napoli. While there will be good hitters around him one way or another, it’s not nearly what Oakland has been doing at the plate this year. Another downside is that Oakland has a much more favorable schedule. The positive factor for Cespdes is that Fenway Park is a much more friendly for hitters, especially for right-handers. Ultimately, I think these factors will somewhat cancel each other out, but I see this trending slightly downward.
Stock: Slightly Down
Jon Lester (Boston to Oakland) – We’ll see what Lester’s salary is when he makes his first start on Saturday against the Royals. This has all signs pointing upwards for Lester. He has more run support for wins and is in more of a pitcher’s park. Furthermore, the Athletics have a much easier schedule the rest of the way, not to mention the good AL West teams (Angels, Mariners) have pitcher’s parks too.
Jonny Gomes (Boston to Oakland) $2,200 – Gomes was already at minimum salary. You can look at this in a positive and negative way. Positively, Gomes will have a lot more run support. Negatively, he’ll get less playing time. He will also likely bat toward the bottom of the order, whereas in Boston he would sometimes be as high as fifth. Although, while Craig Gentry is hurt, he should be the next outfielder in line. We’ll call this a wash.
Sam Fuld (Minnesota to Oakland) $3,000 – Fuld’s salary was bumped to $3,000. This is too high for him no matter where he plays. Fuld is in the same position as Gomes, waiting for one of the other outfielders to take the day off. Fuld could be put in the lineup at the No. 2 spot, but he could also be at the end of the order. Minnesota already had a pretty good lineup around him at the top of the order with Brian Dozier usually hitting behind him, This is trending downward, especially with the bump in salary.
Tommy Milone (Oakland to Boston) – Milone was left out of Oakland’s rotation, because the Athletics’ rotation was just that good. Milone would be in any other team’s rotation (3.55 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 6-3 Record). His stock certainly goes up in that he’ll be in the primary rotation (arguably Minnesota’s best pitcher). The downside is that Milone is a lefty and HRs are given up more to right-handed hitters at Target Field. Milone’s salary was already pretty cheap to begin with and he’s not a huge strikeout guy (not too bad either). For the most part, Milone won’t be used, but given the right matchup (vs. the Indians), he could be a sneaky good play.
John Lackey (Boston to St. Louis) – Stock is certainly going up here. First, Lackey moves to the national league. Second, he’s getting out of Fenway and moving to a decent pitcher’s park in Busch Stadium.
Joe Kelly (St. Louis to Boston) – Stock goes down for the exact opposite reasons of Lackey.
Allen Craig (St. Louis to Boston) $2,200 – That’s right, Allen Craig is $2,200 on Fan Duel. We’ll see where Craig is put into the lineup, but one way or another, this is great value, despite being in a bit of a slump.
Gerado Parra (Arizona to Milwaukee) $2,400 – Parra should be the full-time right field starter for the Brewers. The good news is that Milwaukee should certainly help his stats in terms of the ballpark and who’s around him. The bad news is that he’ll likely be hitting in the middle or the end of the lineup. With such a low salary and that Milwaukee should help for the most part, we’ll go with stock up, but keep an eye on where the Brewers have him in the lineup.
Chris Denorfia (San Diego to Seattle) $2,300 – It’s unclear if Denorfia will be a full-time outfielder. Granted the top of the order and the Mariners outfield is fairly weak, but they also got Austin Jackson. Going to any lineup other than the Padres is an upgrade, but if Denorfia is the main man in right field and gets to hit first or second, this is definitely stock up.
Asdrubal Cabrera (Cleveland to Washington) $2,600 – With Ryan Zimmerman hurt, this situation is a bit unpredictable. Most likely Anthony Rendon moves to third while Asdrubal takes over at second base. With Cabrera’s continued hitting struggles, it’s hard to imagine him being anywhere near the top of the order. Cleveland is also the most left-handed hitter-friendly park, which Cabrera often took advantage of (switch-hitter, but much better left-handed. $2,600 would be a steal in some matchups with the Indians, but now the price is about right.
David Price (Tampa Bay to Detroit) – The biggest move before the trade deadline. The Tigers now have the last AL Cy Young winners. Almost everything is positive about this move for Price – more run support, weaker hitting division, Brad Ausmus tries to stay away from his horrible bullpen. The only downside is that Comerica Park is more built for right-handed hitters. But this isn’t nearly a big enough impact given the other factors.
Austin Jackson (Detroit to Seattle) $3,200 – Jackson used to be one of the best value plays at $2,500. After he did consistently well at the leadoff spot, he went up to $3,500 and dropped to $3,300. $3,200 isn’t a big enough drop for Jackson, assuming he’s hitting leadoff. Seattle doesn’t have Detroit’s power and it’s much more of a pitchers’ park.
Drew Smyly (Detroit to Tampa Bay) – This is going to be tough for Smyly. Take the opposite of the comments about Price and his stock goes down some.
Martin Prado (Arizona to NY Yankees) $2,800 – Prado will likely move down a spot or two in the Yankees lineup, but it shouldn’t be too drastic. He should hit sixth or seventh behind Carlos Beltran or Brian McCann. The Yankees lineup and ballpark around him should help.
Stock: Slightly Up
Stephen Drew (Boston to NY Yankees) $2,600 – Drew stays in the AL East. He still gets a good ballpark to hit in and should continue to hit somewhere near the bottom of the order. I don’t see much change here.
Stock: HoldView all posts by Nick Juskewycz