Max’s Must-Plays 2/10
There’s only 6 games tonight but I see a lot of potential for some big games because of injury and matchup. As usual I’ll be referencing correlations in this article, a detailed explanation can be found in an article here. Without further ado, my are my plays for tonight.
Corey Brewer – With Kevin Martin and Kevin Love out last night, Brewer took 23 shots and finished with a line of 26/7/2. While Love should come back tonight and take some of the scoring load of Brewer, someone is going to need to make up for the scoring Martin leaves behind and it’s become clear that load will likely go on the shoulders of Brewer. With a extremely cheap salary on all sites, he’ll be in all of my lineups.
Ricky Rubio – The annoying part about starting Rubio is most nights he’ll end up with single digit points because of how little he looks to score, so he rarely has a great night. But Martin being out should help his cause, he took 19 shots against Portland 2 nights ago and I think he’ll take double digit shots tonight even with Love back in the mix. His price is very reasonable on all sites.
Jared Sullinger – Sullinger seems to be the only Celtic post player getting consistent minutes lately, and he’s been doing quite well with them, topping 45 fantasy points in 3 of his last 5 games. Sullinger has been matched up with Milwaukee twice this season, so we have a great sample to evaluate his play vs the Bucks so far. In the two games, he’s averaged 16.5 FGA, 11 Rebounds, and 3 TOs, all solid numbers. I also think Sullinger has developed into a better player than he was earlier in the season, so I expect him to outperform his stats from his previous match up with Milwaukee. His price is a little unreasonable on DraftKings at $7,300, but is very fair on Fanduel at $6,500.
Brandon Knight – Had one good game and one ridiculously good game against Boston in 2 previous matchups. In his best game he had a line of 20/9/8/1/1, which is exactly the type of line that will help you win tonight. Knights biggest weakness is that his team is never in games, but facng a Rondo-less Boston that shouldn’t be a concern. In fact, essentially all the Bucks value should be bumped up because of this, but my favorite Buck tonight is night.
Randy Foye – I hate his matchup with Indiana, but Ty Lawson is out and Foye will be taking over the PG duties. They’re going to really need his scoring tonight, and I envision him at worst going for 20 points but will probably have 5+ TOs. His salary is still a little high in the mid $6,000 from last time Lawson was out, but he’s a solid play.
Jonas Valanciunas – New Orleans ineptitude against Centers recently has been disguised by the fact they haven’t faced any dominant Centers in their last 4 games. While Valanciunas isn’t a dominant post player, he’s a banger who is highly correlated to DvP Centers. If he gets the minutes tonight, he should out-perform his mid $5,000s salary significantly.
Steph Curry – I’m not sure I need to really go in depth here, Curry is matched up with the 76ers who are coming off an absolute meltdown against the Clippers where they got blown out by 50. Philly is just a terrible team with a terrible D, it’s not smart to fade Curry tonight who’s salary is around $10,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Lance Stephenson, Paul George, George Hill, and David West – The Nuggets aren’t going to be running at an as fast pace tonight with Lawson out, but they’re still a fast paced team with a bad defense. Lawson is a good defender so his absence from the lineup should hurt Denver’s D overall, which is why I include George Hill even though I don’t think we’ll ever see a game like he had against Portland if Lance Stephenson is in the lineup. I think any one of these guys could go off tonight, with correlations on their previous matchup indicating George and West will likely have the best games. However, from a feel standpoint Stephenson seems like the best play, and he’s got a dirt cheap salary on DraftKings. I think if you go with a couple of any of these players in your GPP lineups you’ll do well.
James Harden – Harden was actually out in their previous matchup with Minnesota, but the matchup still indicated some things for me that made me like Harden. All the guards did well which makes sense given Minnesota gives up a ton of fantasy points to PGs. Harden is really the PG of the team with Patrick Beverley taking more of a defensive role, and I think he could really go off tonight. His salary is slightly depressed for a guy who’s legitimately capable of topping 60 fantasy points, so go with him in your GPPs without hesitation.
Good Luck Tonight!
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