Max’s DraftKings Picks Mon Dec 30th
There aren’t any match ups tonight that stand out, so we’re going to have to look a little deeper to find great plays tonight. Here are a few guys I really like.
Timofey Mozgov $3,800 – A lot of people will be scared off by Mozgov’s 9.5 point game on Saturday, and with Kenneth Faried back one may expect a decrease in production for Mozgov. But coach Shaw seems to be completely fine with changing the lineup on a whim and I think he’ll keep Faried coming off the bench this game. Mozgov has done well with Faried out, if you exclude that 9.5 point game he produced 23, 33, and 25 points in his last 3 which is great production out of a $3800 salary player. He also is facing Miami, who is overall a good defensive team but does struggle against big men. I don’t expect Mozgov to have a 40 point game, but I think he’ll produce in the 20-30 range most of the time.
Tyreke Evans $6,900 – Evans has been on an absolute tear lately, mostly due to Eric Gordon’s recent injury. Gordon is a game time decision tonight and could play, but I read a few statements from him about his injury and he doesn’t sound optimistic at all. Even if he does play, he’ll most likely be hobbled which opens the door for Evans to play big minutes again. I also like that New Orleans is only a 3.5 point underdog to Portland, this game should be close. There’s a lot of factors going for Evans tonight and as a player who’s averaging over 40 fantasy points a game for his last 5, he’s essentially impossible to pass up at his salary.
Kemba Walker $8,200 – This is mostly a matchup play but I want to point out first that although Walker hasn’t put up great numbers, 36 and 28 fantasy points in his last 2 games, it’s mostly due to him missing a ton of shots. I want to state this because usually DFS players go away from players who aren’t “hot” and I’m guessing he won’t get a ton of usage tonight, which can be extremely helpful in GPPs if we make the right pick. Walker is facing Utah, who isn’t the worst team in the NBA with regards to fantasy points given up but is in the bottom half, and I suspect they would be worse if they didn’t get blown out so much. Utah has the worst defensive rating in the NBA, and their starting PG, Trey Burke, is one of the worst defensive PGs in the NBA according to that statistic. Walker isn’t an outstanding athlete, so when he faces a bad D his stats increase more than the normal player. This is also projected to be another close game with Charlotte favored by only 2. All in all there are a ton of reasons to pick Walker tonight and I expect him to be one of the best PG plays tonight.
Gordon Hayward $7,300 – Hayward is a little pricey (he’s only $6500 on FanDuel) but I really like him in this matchup because of my frequent unsuccessful driver and bad paint defender signal. The signal uses NBA.com’s own statistics which show that Hayward drives too the basket 5.5 times a game but only shoots 37% on drives, and that Al Jefferson allows 56% on FGs at the Rim. Although this should add up to a few more points in a game, my theory is that the confidence that Hayward will get from successful drives will encourage him to drive more and create many more opportunities to score and get assists. I’ve been using this signal lately with a lot of success, so I’m excited to continue to use it and observe the results. Kemba Walker is another player who falls in this category, and is also facing a poor rim protecting team in Utah, so I expect him to benefit from this as well. While I don’t love Hayward as much as Walker tonight I think they’re both great plays.
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