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Matchup Breakdown: Magic vs Raptors Wednesday 1/29

While this probably isn’t a game you’ll be watching on tv, it is an intriguing matchup for daily fantasy. The Magic do terribly against big men but the Raptors frontcourt rotation is hard to predict. And with Demar Derozan out (he’s a GTD tonight), the Raptor’s individual performances have been all over the place. I’ll try to help sort things out for you for tonight.

Toronto Raptors

Jonas Valanciunas, Amir Johnson, Patrick Patterson

When a team goes up againsy the Magic, most DFS players have a two step process to picking their lineups. 1) Locate big men playing the Magic 2) Play them. However, with Toronto, this becomes a lot more complicated. Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas have been getting paltry minutes lately, giving them mostly up to Patrick Patterson. With Derozan out, Valanciunas has been getting an uptick in minutes with Amir Johnson staying the same. I’ll just get out of the way that I don’t recommend Johnson unless it’s a GPP but he’s too risky even for that.

Valanciunas has a really good matchup correlation wise. He correlates a .5 to offensive rebounds allowed, and the Magic without Vuvecic are definitely the worst rebounding team in the NBA. When we see .5 correlations, it is a very accurate indicator of performance. However, I’m worried about Val’s minutes. If Derozan comes back tonight, and it looks like he may, Val could only get around 25 minutes. Usually, coaches ride the hot hand of a starter when they perform well but Dwayne Casey seems to like to bench Val even when he’s performing.

Patrick Patterson is usually the player who takes his place, and he usually fills up the stat sheet in limited minutes. However, he’s not a killer offensive rebounder, which is where Orlando really struggles. Still, his salary is low on most sites and I think he’s a good play in 50/50s and GPPs, but Val has more potential.

In the end, if Derozan doesn’t play I think Valanciunas is a great start on all sites and all formats. If he does, I still like Val. just not as much. I think he starts out on a tear forcing his coach to keep him on the floor.

Terrence Ross

Still has value on most sites if Derozan is out, and I expect him to perform better than his 10/7/2 performance against Brooklyn. But if Derozan is back, he should be on the bench.

Kyle Lowry

If Derozan is out, I love Lowry. The team is basically Derozan and him and it showed against Brooklyn where he crushed for over 50 fantasy points. He should have the ball in his hands often tonight. If Derozan is back, however, I don’t love Lowry since his matchup favors the big men on the team.

Orlando Magic

Tobias Harris

Harris is one of the only players on the Magic I like tonight. He’s been the most consistent player on the Magic and has a reasonable salary on all sites. Toronto has a stingy fantasy D in general, but have dropped to middle of the pack against PFs in their last 15. My guess is this has something to do with the emergence of Patrick Patterson and the disappearence of Amir Johnson. Johnson is a great defender while Patterson’s offense is more his forte. I like Harris, but don’t love him.

Victor Oladipo

Oladipo came off the bench last night, but that was more of a matchup issue against Detroit and he should be back in the starting lineup tonight. Oladipo is the type of player who can fill up the stat sheet which is why he should be on your mind in GPPs every night he plays. He doesn’t have a great matchup and his price is slightly high on both DraftKings and Fanduel, but I think he’s worth a GPP play.

I can’t recommend any other Magic player.

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View all posts by Max J Steinberg
Max J Steinberg

About the Author

Max J Steinberg Max Steinberg is a professional poker player and a top Daily Fantasy player who uses his creativity and mathematical abilities he cultivated as a poker player to win money on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He already has several big tournament scores to his name including the Victiv Bowl and countless MLB Monster wins. Follow him on twitter @maxjsteinberg.

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