Matchup Breakdown: Den vs Minn and ATL vs TOR 2/12
Denver @ Minnesota
Notable Injuries: Ty Lawson (Out), Kevin Martin (Out)
Injuries are effecting both Denver and Minnesota tonight, and they open up a lot of value plays for both teams. On Denver, Randy Foye is again stepping in for Ty Lawson and it’s pretty safe to assume we’ll continue to see good numbers from him especially against a soft Minnesota D. Even though Quincy Miller got the start on Monday, I have a feeling Evan Fournier will start tonight. On Minnesota’s side, Chase Budinger has been inserted into the starting lineup for Kevin Martin and has performed pretty well, while Corey Brewer, Ricky Rubio, and Kevin Love will all have to take on some extra responsibility for the scoring load.
Ricky Rubio – Denver is normally middle of the pack on D against PG but that has a lot to do with Ty Lawson’s solid defense. Randy Foye and Evan Fournier are slightly worse defenders. Our previous matchup correlations bode well for Rubio, he averaged 6 TOs and 11.5 assists in 2 previous games against Denver, and although he only took 5 shots in one of those games I expect him to take over 10 tonight, on par with every game he’s played while Martin has been out. His salary is very fair on FanDuel at $6,700, he’s a solid play at worst.
Kevin Love – Denver is absolutely atrocious against big men, specifically at the PF position where Kenneth Faried seems to get owned night after night. Love will be played by many DFS players tonight, I wouldn’t recommend fading him.
Chase Budinger – He’s close min salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is getting solid minutes at the SF position. I don’t think he has a lot of potential, I wouldn’t play him in GPPs, but he’ll surely perform at value.
Corey Brewer – Brewer had an absolutely terrible game 2 nights ago against Houston, where he was in foul trouble all game and only played 18 minutes, but I still like him tonight. He’s under $5,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel and will likely get 35+ minutes tonight and take 15+ shots. Only 2 games ago, he had a line of 26/7/2/1 which is a huge performance at his salary. I prefer him over Budinger.
Randy Foye – Foye is my top play tonight and may be one of the safest plays you’ll ever see. Playing PG for Denver, he handles the ball a ton and seems to get double digit assists everytime Lawson is out. He both has the potential to get 50+ Fantasy Points but also will never have a game below 20. At a $6,500 salary on FanDuel and $6,100 on DraftKings, he’s an absolute must play.
Kenneth Faried and JJ Hickson – Minnesota’s front court is very thin right now and it makes both Hickson and Faried guys to look at. From a matchup perspective, I like Hickson more who will go against Ronny Turiaf and Gorgui Dieng (Minns backup Center) for parts of the game. From what I’ve seen of Dieng, he is a terrible defender and can get absolutely owned. But I also like Faried, who seems to be extra motivated when matching up against elite players. I think Hickson is the safer play but I wouldn’t mind going with Faried in GPPs. I think a sleeper tonight may be Timofey Mozgov, who will be seeing a lot of Dieng and could get solid PT if Faried or Hickson get into foul trouble.
Evan Fournier – If Fournier starts, he’ll surely outperform his min salary. Even if he doesn’t, I wouldn’t totally count him out. He’ll play PG some of the time and Minnesota is very bad against that position.
Hawks @ Raptors
Notable Injuries : Amir Johnson (questionable)
The Hawks and Raptors both have pretty straightforward rotations. Millsap, Carroll, Teague and Korver all get significant minutes while Elton Brand, Mike Scott, Louis Williams and Gustavo Ayon share the rest, with Scott and Williams having the most potential out of the 2nd unit players. For the Raptors, I suspect Johnson will be out against tonight with the Raptors planning on resting him through the All Star Break. If that’s the case, Lowry, Ross, Derozan, Patterson, and Valanciunas should get big minutes while Grevis Vazquez is the only player you really could even consider playing off their bench.
Paul Millsap – Millsap only had an OK game against Toronto last time around, but that was when Horford was healthy and Amir Johnson was getting big minutes. Patterson is a significantly worse defender than Johnson which bodes well for Millsap. His price is in the high $8,000s on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he’s definitely capable of a big game here so I think he warrants consideration. I don’t love him though.
Jeff Teague – Had 13 FGA, 9 FTA, and 12 assists last time they faced the Raptors, all on the high side for a player who is under $6,000 on FanDuel. However, these numbers don’t make a lot of sense considering the Raptors guard PGs very well and play at a slow pace. Still, I think Teague makes an interesting GPP play but I probably won’t use him.
Patrick Patterson – If Amir Johnson is out, Patterson should have another good game against a Hawks team that is small inside and just got torched against both Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson. Patterson isn’t as good as either, but he’s only $5,100 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings. If he starts, start him.
Demar Derozan – In his previous matchup with the Hawks, and this was a game where Rudy Gay was on the Raptors and took 23 shots, Derozan performed exceptionally well with a 31/4/2/1/1 line. While we can’t just base our picks off of previous performance alone, we have to imagine that he will have at least a similar game tonight without Gay on the team. I’m not sure why DeRozan did well, but it’s possible that this is much more of a favorable matchup than we think. On DraftKings, Derozan is only $8,100 and very worthy of a start, but on FanDuel at $8,800, I’m a little more wary.
Good Luck Tonight!View all posts by Max J Steinberg