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Matchup Analysis: 76ers vs Celtics 2/5

This game will be easier analyze than most. We have the benefit of a very recent matchup and both teams are just absolutely atrocious fantasy defenses. Finding the players who should play the most minutes will be key tonight.

Here are notables from the previous matchup. Note that Rajon Rondo didn’t play because it was the 2nd game of a back to back, but he is certain to play tonight and says he’s ” feeling great”:

76ers Win 95-94

Great:
Jared Sullinger 24/17/2/1

Good:
Jeff Green 18/6/4
Spencer Hawes 20/8/2/1
Evan Turner 16/6/8/2

Bad:
MCW 10/5/7/1/2 on 4/14 shooting

Rajon Rondo didn’t play in their previous game, but did play 3 nights ago against the Magic and did quite well with a classic Rondo line of 19/6/10/3. He only played 27 minutes, but his minutes have been increasing slowly with every game. Given that the game was on the 2nd, I expect Rondo will play upwards of 30 minutes with the amount of rest he’s getting. Rondo is the exact type of player you want to play against Philly, an super athletic PG that can get assists and steals but also pull down some boards. He clearly will have at least a good game tonight, but is pretty expensive on DraftKings at $7,600. On Fanduel, where he’s only $6,300, he’s a must play.

Jared Sullinger has a lot of things going for him lately: He’s played over 30 minutes in the last 2 games, had at least 20/10 in those games, and had a great game in his previous matchup with Philly. Obviously, it’s hard not to like Sully, and I paticularly like that he got 39 minutes against Orlando, which says to me that Brad Stevens really likes him right now. He’s going to be in my lineups and will be hard to pass up at only $5,900 on DraftKings.

Jeff Green had a decent game against Philly last time around, but really didn’t outperform his salary that much. He also has a lot of negative things going for him this time around: 1) Avery Bradley and Rondo are both playing, meaning that he probably won’t have to play 40+ minutes and play both SG and SF nor 2) Will he have to take a ton of shots as the Celtics #1 option. 3) He also doesn’t rack up many steals or blocks, which is the key to having a great game against Philadelphia. I’d pass on him tonight.

Avery Bradley wasn’t on my radar tonight, until I saw his $4,200 salary on DraftKings. I’m not sure what’s wrong with DK’s salary algorithm but this seems to happen a lot when players go down with an injury for a short period of time. In terms of correlations, Bradley correlates very highly with DvP but not as highly with fantasy points given up as a team. This tells me he thrives off of specific matchups, and Philly isn’t paticularly bad at guarding SGs really, they just play very fast and sloppy. Still, he should do well with Rondo back because Bradley is mostly a spot up shooter and he should get plenty of open shots, especially against the team that gives up the most 3 pointers in the league. I love him at $4,200 on DK, but at $5,700 on Fanduel he’s less enticing but a decent play.

As for players on Philadelphia, Spencer Hawes had a good game last time out which makes sense, since the Celtics are one of the worst teams in the NBA against Centers. However, Hawes doesn’t seem to have a strong correlation with DvP, which doesn’t make me want to ditch him completely, but it does make it so he won’t be a priority in my lineups, especially at $6,700 on each site. He’s just way too inconsistent to be anything but a GPP play tonight.

Michael Carter-Williams had a poor game against the Celtics in their last matchup, and it probably won’t get any better with Rajon Rondo guarding him tonight. I’d stay away although it would be foolish to totally rule him out on any night.

With regards to Evan Turner and Thad Young, I’m not compelled to play either of them, but I could see Young having a good game against the Celtics who struggle against big men, but I don’t like him in headsups or 50/50s at a $7,300 salary.

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View all posts by Max J Steinberg
Max J Steinberg

About the Author

Max J Steinberg Max Steinberg is a professional poker player and a top Daily Fantasy player who uses his creativity and mathematical abilities he cultivated as a poker player to win money on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He already has several big tournament scores to his name including the Victiv Bowl and countless MLB Monster wins. Follow him on twitter @maxjsteinberg.

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