Mad Max’s GPP Rundown (8/3)
Welcome to the free edition of Mad Max’s GPP Rundown! Don’t worry, this will be the same article as always (maybe even a bit longer, I got an early start today) and I think you’ll find my advice today a bit unexpected and interesting.
We have a three dynamics happening today that should significantly influence GPP strategy in DFS.
1) There are only 10 games.
2) The two most viable options at pitcher (Francisco Liriano and Corey Kluber) are priced highly.
3) There’s a game at Coors Field.
This is going to influence strategy and hitter ownership levels greatly in big GPPs. As I always preach in GPPs, we want to try to predict how the field is going to pick, and then try to go against it in an intelligent way. When there are such strong influences, we can predict ownership levels with a lot of confidence and accuracy. Because of this, I’m gonna have a very set game plan tonight.
Let’s get into it.
As I stated before, I think the most highly owned and most viable options at pitcher tonight are Corey Kluber and Francisco Liriano. Here are my thoughts on both.
Francisco Liriano ($10,400 on DraftKings, $10,500 on FanDuel): Liriano is in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career, and he gets a great match up here at home vs the Cubs, who strike out quite a bit and who’s best hitters are all lefties (aside from Kris Bryant). He’s currently a -130 favorite in an o/u of 6.5. I think this line moves a bit as well later in the day, I just don’t buy that the Pirates score under 3.5 runs when they’re stacked with right-handed base-stealers against a lefty who can’t hold base-runners to save his life. I like Liriano a lot here as long as the weather holds up and I see him being highly-owned, especially on DraftKings where pitcher is an ultra-thin position.
Corey Kluber ($11,700 on DraftKings, $11,300 on FanDuel): Kluber is certainly a better pitcher than Liriano, but has a lot more going against him given he does not have a good matchup vs the Angels and is also an underdog on the road. He still has incredible upside and will certainly get some ownership with the pitcher position being so thin today. But with DFSers desire to use some of the high priced Seattle players at Coors, he may get lower ownership than we think. If I see under 10% on FanDuel, I wouldn’t be shocked.
Pitcher is really, really thin today. Here are my thoughts on the other viable options.
Garrett Richards: His best price is on FanDuel at $8,400, and he does have a good match up in some respects here. Jason Kipnis is out and Brandon Moss just got traded, the Indians lineup simply isn’t that good. But they aren’t a high strikeout lineup either. And Richards is not the pitcher he once was coming off a knee injury in the off-season, his xFIP is almost 4 this year and his K/9 is 6.68. I just don’t like his upside here, and that matters a ton when we’re talking GPPs. I likely won’t be using him.
Tyson Ross: Although he’s on the road, is only a small favorite, and the over/under is high, I do like Ross a bit here. He’s a high-splits (he does much better against righties than lefties) pitcher and the Brewers have a lineup stacked with mostly righties. And having traded away three of their top of the order hitters, this lineup just doesn’t scare me. His price is pretty reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Jose Quintana: Quintana is a pretty good pitcher, with a 7.71 K/9 and a 3.42 xFIP this year. And he has a pretty good match up as well against the Rays. And, he has a pretty good price on both sites. All in all, I’d say he’s pretty, pretty, good! But seriously, I think I might like him the best out of the three other options.
Lance McCullers: The over/under is huge but this is a sneaky good matchup for McCullers. He has big reverse splits in his short career, meaning he actually does much better against lefties, and the Rangers is a lefty stacked lineup. He’s a huge risk but is a very quality pitcher, I may put him in one or two GPPs on DraftKings.
Jesse Chavez: Chavez has not been great recently and I think that puts a significant dent in his ownership levels, but he’s at home and the Orioles are actually a good match up when they’re playing in a pitchers park like the Oakland Coliseum. He is very well priced, and probably wasn’t on your radar at all, but I’ll be using him quite a bit on DraftKings in GPPs in my Seattle and Colorado stacks.
Because of the game at Coors, I think there are going to be quite a few viable high salary options that will be totally overlooked. I don’t think it will be position specific either, since DFSers just won’t have enough money to use several high salary players. Here are some guys I think will fly way under-the-radar.
Jose Abreu (Best price: FanDuel $4,200): My guess is DFSers will be going cheap at first base, wanting to spend up on Mariner’s lefties like Kyle Seager and Seth Smith. Plus, there are really good cheap options at 1B like Ryan Zimmerman and Yonder Alonso. Abreu does well against 4-seams and Karns throws a very straight fastball. He obviously has a lot of upside at home but should be toward the 5% ownership level on FanDuel.
Charlie Blackmon (Best price: DraftKings $4,600): Going against Felix Hernandez and with several better looking options near his price point, Blackmon’s ownership will be quite low. But, he has quite a bit of upside here and plenty of reasons to be used. He loves hitting off-speed pitches, and although Felix Hernandez is known for being a flame thrower he mostly throws changeups and curves now-a-days. Hernandez is also poor at holding base-runners. Blackmon has a lot of SB upside here if he gets on a couple times and could be in for a 15+ point game without hitting for any power.
Carlos Gomez (Best price: DraftKings $4,100): Andrew McCutchen is basically at Gomez’ exact same price-point, and as I stated earlier there just isn’t that much salary to spread around tonight. I see him being overlooked even though he’s a great option tonight at the Rangers. I like the Astros stack a lot tonight as well.
High-Owned on DraftKings
There are a few guys who should get big ownership tonight on DraftKings. But should you fade them in GPPs?
Ketel Marte ($2,000): Marte should be leading off for the Mariners tonight. He’s a young contact hitter with speed which plays well at Coors, and at min price when his team has an off the charts run projection he should have massive ownership tonight. While I don’t recommend fading him completely, I think there’s an argument for leaving him out of some of your lineups. If you don’t use him, your lineup will be structured in a drastically different way from the field, which is incredibly important in GPPs. Plus, Marte isn’t a great hitter and he’s facing a pitcher who’s decent against righties, he could easily go 0-4. Yunel Escobar, Brad Miller, and Jose Reyes don’t seem like bad fade options.
Andrew McCutchen ($4,200): McCutchen has an amazing price tonight and while he’s facing a good pitcher in Jon Lester, his match up is absolutely perfect. McCutchen is much better against lefties and as a base-stealing threat he should have a field day against Lester, who almost never throws over to 1st base and base-runners have been exploiting him all season. I expect McCutchen to have high ownership, but with his team having such a low run projection I could see myself being surprised. I recommend using him a lot in GPPs.
High-Owned on FanDuel
Anthony Rendon ($2,900): 2B is a little thin tonight and Rendon’s price is hard to pass up. I see him being very highly-owned. But I don’t mind a fade here at all, Jose Altuve and Robinson Cano are both very good options and will be under-owned tonight.
Mark Trumbo ($2,300): He may be toward the bottom of the order, but I doubt many DFSers are going to pass on Trumbo’s ridiculous price. OF’s ownership is usually inflated, so I’m confident that Trumbo will be used quite a bit tonight. But he’s a high variance hitter and he’s facing a righty, he could easily have an 0-4 game so I don’t mind a fade here as well.
If you want to stack a team in GPPs, here are a few of my favorites.
The Houston Astros
Gattis, Gomez, and Altuve all have solid prices, and Vegas has them scoring over 4.5 runs. They have the best combination of value and firepower tonight.
The Washington Nationals
Basically everyone in their lineup has a good price, and with a 4.5 run projection at home I see no reason to fade them as a stack.
The San Diego Padres
Whenever a team goes from a pitchers park to a hitters park, the value of their team as a whole is going to go way, way up. The Padres are playing at Miller park tonight and facing a mediocre Wily Peralta, they have the potential for a big game.
The Colorado Rockies
Going against a very good pitcher like Felix Hernandez, I’m sure most DFSers will shy away from using the Rockies even though they’re playing at home. But the Rockies have a good amount of lefties who should give Hernandez some trouble, and Vegas thinks they should score over 4 runs tonight. I think they have more upside than you might expect tonight.
Why not the Mariners?
I think the Mariners will be over-used tonight and their prices are incredibly jacked up aside from Ketel Marte. If Marte and the Mariner’s have a bad game, which is easily possible, we are in a great position to win big in GPPs. I’ll likely use a Mariner here and there, but I won’t be stacking them much at all.
As always, chat with us on the Daily Fantasy Winners Forums or tweet me @maxjsteinberg if you have any questions!
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