Identifying Value Plays Using the NFL Point Projection Tool
One of my favorite tools to use on Daily Fantasy Winners is the NFL Point Projection tool. By taking spreads and o/u lines from Las Vegas Sportsbooks, we assign each team a point projection. We then break that point projection down into a Run and Pass projection based on matchup and the regular gameplan of each team. Lastly, we look at the difference between a teams points scored this season vs what they’re projected to do this week, in order to find which teams may have the best values. Here are some of my favorite plays I’ve found by using the tool this week.
Matthew Stafford (Best price: FanDuel $8,300) – Stafford has been mediocre at best this season through 12 games but it mostly has to do with injuries on offense, mainly of Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush, two of their best skill players. After a drubbing of Chicago on Thanksgiving, sports bettors clearly think Detroit’s offense is back on track. Detroit has scored only 19.2 PPG this year, but Vegas projects them to score 25.5 points in this game, almost a TD difference in scoring. Our pass point share stat has Detroit’s passing offense up there with Indy, New Orleans, Denver, and Green Bay. Stafford is significantly cheaper than QBs like Manning and Rodgers, but we project his stats to be closer to those elite QBs than you might think.
Eddie Lacy (Best Price: FanDuel $8,500, DraftKings $7,800) – Most daily fantasy players will be all over Aaron Rodgers and some of the other RBs at Lacy’s price-point like Le’Veon Bell and Demarco Murray, but Green Bay actually has the highest Run Point Share by far this week, and it’s not even close, with almost 16 points projected to be scored via the run game. Compare that with Demarco Murray’s Cowboys, who are projected to score 12.3 points on the ground. Lacy has thrived in easy matchups this season, most notably in his two games against a poor Minnesota run D. As counter-intuitive as it may seem, Lacy may be a much better play than Murray, Forte, or Bell this week.
Bishop Sankey (Best Price: FanDuel $5,400) – Tennessee has the second highest difference between their projected offense and their season PPG this week with a 5.45 DIFF, and while Sankey hasn’t had a big workload in any game this season, it’s mostly been a function of the Titans being down so often. They’re actually favored against the Giants this week by 1, so this game should be at least a close contest. And the Giants have been run on this year. I think Sankey has his best performance of the season this Sunday, and his fantasy production exceeds his salary significantly.View all posts by Max J Steinberg