Ground Ball Fly Ball Pitchers and Hitters 7/25
I’ve written a couple articles outlining the Fly Ball Ground Ball phenomenon. For those of you who have missed my previous articles, the concept is essentially this: Hitters who hit ground balls the majority of the time do better against pitchers who give up fly balls the majority of the time. And hitters who hit predominantly fly balls do better against pitchers who induce a lot of ground balls. It’s talked about extensively in The Book: Playing Percentages in Baseball and is a factor that I’m sure almost no one uses in Daily Fantasy MLB.
There are some extremely fly ball and ground ball pitchers tonight so I’ll just get into it.
Charlie Morton (Opp – Rockies)
Target: Corey Dickerson – Dickerson hits a very low amount of ground balls, and is actually a very quality play at almost a .9 FP/$ (assuming he’s hitting 3rd for the Rockies). Outfield is a very strong position today, so I wouldn’t go crazy over this, but he’ll definitely get a spot in at least one of my lineups.
Brett Anderson (Opp – Pirates)
Target: Andrew McCutchen – Like we needed another reason to play Cutch today. He’s not the strongest fly ball hitter but is a stronger one against lefties. Given how Coors Field is actually pretty conducive to triples and doubles for righties (https://dailyfantasywinners.com/mlb-park-factors/), we don’t mind a few ground balls anyway. But the Pirates lineup is loaded with GB hitters and lefties, so McCutchen should be especially important in the lineup tonight.
Jerome Williams (Opp – A’s)
Targets – Yoenis Cespedes, Brandon Moss, and Jed Lowrie – All of these players are extreme fly ball hitters in an A’s lineup that should absolutely crush the Rangers tonight. I recommend Moss the most, his price on Fanduel is finally reasonable and the Rangers park is slightly better for lefties.
Dallas Keuchel (Opp – Marlins)
Target – Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Salty will probably get less than 4% play tonight, especially considering he has done much better against righties than lefties in his career. However, Keuchel is the most GB pitcher in the league this year and Salty is an extreme fly ball hitter vs lefties. I probably won’t play him, I don’t really recommend him, but I’m curious to see how this pans out.
Fly Ball Pitchers:
John Danks (opp – Twins)
Targets – Eduardo Nunez and Chris Colabello – Now here are some sleepers! Both these players are GB hitters who hit very few Line Drives, which is exactly what we look for when finding good matchups vs flyball pitchers. The Twins completely stunk it up last night and are somehow still projected to score over 4 runs against Danks today. I think both these players do surprise us.
Josh Tomlin (opp – Royals)
Targets – No one. I would have certainly recommended Eric Hosmer or Billy Butler here but neither are playing. Lorenzo Cain is an intriguing choice here but isn’t an extreme enough ground ball hitter for me to recommend him.
Brad Hand – (Opp – Astros)
Targets – Jose Altuve – As we saw with Ben Revere a few nights ago, if great base stealers can get on base they can really go big. Altuve is a GB hitter who will surely benefit going against Hand, and he’s so good on the base paths that it almost doesn’t matter that he’s up against a lefty. He seems like a great play tonight although sadly is overpriced. Another choice would be Jesus Guzman, but he’s so cheap it’s hard to recommend him.
That’s all of them for tonight. Here are my top plays using the GB/FB factor:
1) Chris Colabello
2) Brandon Moss
3) Eduardo Nunez
4) Jose Altuve
Good Luck tonight!View all posts by Max J Steinberg