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DFS NBA: Don’t Target Spurs As Big Favorites

Tonight, the San Antonio Spurs have the juiciest matchup in the league, as they face the Philadelphia 76ers. The Spurs are currently favored by 21 points, which means there is a significant chance of blowout. Normally, I don’t worry about blowouts, because the lack of 4th quarter minutes are made up by large fantasy points per minute in the first 3 quarters. But with the Spurs, because they are so conservative with starter minutes in blowouts, playing them is an extremely risky play tonight.

Here are a list of several blow out games by the Spurs this season.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201311100NYK.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201403140SAS.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201312310SAS.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201311250SAS.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201401190SAS.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201401240ATL.html

For those who didn’t want to wade through the game logs, starters got less than 20 minutes of playing time in a few of those games, rarely breaking 30 minutes. It gets worse the worse of a team they face. In a blowout against NYK, the Spurs starters averaged approximately 15 minutes of playing time. Popovich barely played any starter in the 2nd half in some of these games.

Even choosing bench players is difficult, because the Spurs often go to 5 players who aren’t even in the rotation in garbage time. The exception tends to be when they are very thin at one position. Patty Mills got 28 minutes in a blowout when him and Cory Joseph were the only real PGs who suited up.

In cash games at least, the Spurs should probably be heavily avoided. Check the injury reports today and see if they end up suiting up thinly at key positions, and consider targeting the bench player at that position.

View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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