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DFS MLB Strategy: Using Ballpark Factors To Your Advantage

In the MLB, unlike most other sports, stadiums are not created equal. Some stadiums have different dimensions, different wall sizes, advantageous winds, or thin mountain air. Because of this, some stadiums are more conducive to runs, and some are less so. The way stadium factors effect your DFS lineups has to do with when teams that play in bad hitter’s parks visit teams with good hitter’s parks.

I’ve consolidated data from the past 5 years using ESPN stats on what they call “Park Factors” which is simply a teams stats at home versus their teams stats on the road. This should give us a very good idea of which are the most hitter friendly stadiums and which are the least so.

Here’s simply park factors for runs scored only in the past 5 years. I’ve left out the Yankees since they’ve recently switched stadiums

Coors Field (Denver, Colorado)1.362
Globe Life Park in Arlington (Arlington, Texas)1.1506
Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona)1.1066
Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts)1.0988
Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois)1.0932
U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois)1.0908
Comerica Park (Detroit, Michigan)1.0556
Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)1.0456
Miller Park (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)1.0342
Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio)1.0332
Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas)1.0256
Target Field (Minneapolis, Minnesota)1.0212
Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)1.0182
Petco Park (San Diego, California)0.9936
O.co Coliseum (Oakland, California)0.9894
Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario)0.976
Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.)0.9722
Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland)0.9716
Turner Field (Atlanta, Georgia)0.9698
Safeco Field (Seattle, Washington)0.9462
Sun Life Stadium (Miami, Florida)0.9318
Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)0.9258
Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio)0.92
Angel Stadium of Anaheim (Anaheim, California)0.9
Citi Field (New York, New York)0.8964
Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, California)0.8934
Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida)0.8836
PNC Park (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)0.8822
AT&T Park (San Francisco, California)0.8674

The most significant run differential is Coors Field, which is well known because of how thin the rocky mountain air is, which is likely why we also see Chase Field in Arizona be so hitter friendly as well. The worst park for hitters is where the SF Giants play, but the Mets, Dodgers, Rays, and Pirates all have quite pitcher friendly parks as well.

The way park factors will effect your lineup decisions is when a team from a pitcher friendly park visits a team that has a hitter friendly park or vice versa.  Why is that? Because DFS websites do not tend to factor in what park is being played at when pricing players. Every hitter on the Giants will be a bit undervalued, because they play half their games in a difficult park, while every pitcher on the Rockies will be undervalued because their stats will be inflated because of how much of an advantage Coors Field is for hitters. In a case where, say, the Dodgers visit the Rockies, it’s probably a good idea to play as many Dodgers players as a site allows, because the difference in hitting success is so significant.

You’ll notice with best DFS baseball players, their lineups will almost exclusively be players playing at Coors Field on days where the Rockies have a home game. That’s because the Coors Field park factor is so significant.

Baseball DFS is very popular among recreational players. Despite how simple this park picking strategy may be, most players will not use it, making winning money at baseball DFS quite easy. With the baseball season just beginning, now is as good of a time as any to jump on Fanduel and Draftkings and start making money at daily fantasy.

View all posts by Daniel Steinberg
Daniel Steinberg

About the Author

Daniel Steinberg Daniel Steinberg is a former bond trader at a multi-billion dollar proprietary trading firm in Chicago. He uses his knowledge of statistics and his creativity from his career as a poker professional to create the most advanced Daily Fantasy statistical analysis that you will find anywhere. Follow him on twitter @DanielSingerS

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