DFS MLB Strategy: Using Ballpark Factors To Your Advantage
In the MLB, unlike most other sports, stadiums are not created equal. Some stadiums have different dimensions, different wall sizes, advantageous winds, or thin mountain air. Because of this, some stadiums are more conducive to runs, and some are less so. The way stadium factors effect your DFS lineups has to do with when teams that play in bad hitter’s parks visit teams with good hitter’s parks.
I’ve consolidated data from the past 5 years using ESPN stats on what they call “Park Factors” which is simply a teams stats at home versus their teams stats on the road. This should give us a very good idea of which are the most hitter friendly stadiums and which are the least so.
Here’s simply park factors for runs scored only in the past 5 years. I’ve left out the Yankees since they’ve recently switched stadiums
|Coors Field (Denver, Colorado)||1.362|
|Globe Life Park in Arlington (Arlington, Texas)||1.1506|
|Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona)||1.1066|
|Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts)||1.0988|
|Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois)||1.0932|
|U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois)||1.0908|
|Comerica Park (Detroit, Michigan)||1.0556|
|Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)||1.0456|
|Miller Park (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)||1.0342|
|Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio)||1.0332|
|Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas)||1.0256|
|Target Field (Minneapolis, Minnesota)||1.0212|
|Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)||1.0182|
|Petco Park (San Diego, California)||0.9936|
|O.co Coliseum (Oakland, California)||0.9894|
|Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario)||0.976|
|Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.)||0.9722|
|Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland)||0.9716|
|Turner Field (Atlanta, Georgia)||0.9698|
|Safeco Field (Seattle, Washington)||0.9462|
|Sun Life Stadium (Miami, Florida)||0.9318|
|Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)||0.9258|
|Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio)||0.92|
|Angel Stadium of Anaheim (Anaheim, California)||0.9|
|Citi Field (New York, New York)||0.8964|
|Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, California)||0.8934|
|Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida)||0.8836|
|PNC Park (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)||0.8822|
|AT&T Park (San Francisco, California)||0.8674|
The most significant run differential is Coors Field, which is well known because of how thin the rocky mountain air is, which is likely why we also see Chase Field in Arizona be so hitter friendly as well. The worst park for hitters is where the SF Giants play, but the Mets, Dodgers, Rays, and Pirates all have quite pitcher friendly parks as well.
The way park factors will effect your lineup decisions is when a team from a pitcher friendly park visits a team that has a hitter friendly park or vice versa. Why is that? Because DFS websites do not tend to factor in what park is being played at when pricing players. Every hitter on the Giants will be a bit undervalued, because they play half their games in a difficult park, while every pitcher on the Rockies will be undervalued because their stats will be inflated because of how much of an advantage Coors Field is for hitters. In a case where, say, the Dodgers visit the Rockies, it’s probably a good idea to play as many Dodgers players as a site allows, because the difference in hitting success is so significant.
You’ll notice with best DFS baseball players, their lineups will almost exclusively be players playing at Coors Field on days where the Rockies have a home game. That’s because the Coors Field park factor is so significant.
Baseball DFS is very popular among recreational players. Despite how simple this park picking strategy may be, most players will not use it, making winning money at baseball DFS quite easy. With the baseball season just beginning, now is as good of a time as any to jump on Fanduel and Draftkings and start making money at daily fantasy.View all posts by Daniel Steinberg