DFS Football “Sharp” Analysis Week 6
Before I start this article, I want to first address something. Sad news came out last night that Nevada residents will not be able to play Daily Fantasy for the foreseeable future. Because of this, I won’t be playing Daily Fantasy on FanDuel or DraftKings for the rest of the year, but that does not mean I will stop writing articles, making videos, and posting on the forum. We are still absolutely 100% devoted to Daily Fantasy Winners and the content is going to keep on coming!
I tried out a new idea this week, and I think you’ll really like the results. Obviously, we all want to know what the sharp players in DFS are doing from week to week, but sadly we have to wait until after the week is over to really analyze their lineups. And since matchups are so important, that isn’t even all that helpful when all is said and done.
But I had a thought. In Thursday contests, FanDuel shows the ownership % of players that are in your lineup. And that ownership is going to differ depending on the players entering each contest. So I came up with a plan: I entered several lineups in Thursday contests with a wide variety of players, and each lineup was entered into two tournaments, the $5 Rush and the $300 FFFC Qualifier. Then, after the games locked, I compared the ownership percentages of the two contests, to see if there were any drastic differences. My assumption is that the players who have drastically higher ownership in the $300 qualifier, are likely players that the Sharp DFS guys are on.
Below are the results, and my thoughts on each play.
27.5% ownership in $300 contest, 11.7% in $5 contest
Rob Gronkowski is my top play this week and it seems as though the sharp bettors agree with me. While he has had a quiet past two games, Gronkowski is a player who in 2014 had 82 catches, 1,100 yards, and 12 TDs in 15 games, and that was coming off an ACL tear where the Pats limited his snaps for half the season. And this is a player who is only 26, going into his prime. To guess he finishes the year with 16 TDs, 1400+ yards, and 90+ catches actually seems reasonable. And in such an amazing matchup against a really bad Colts D, this could be a huge game for Gronk. I think he’s far an away the best TE play this week, even from a value standpoint.
17.9% ownership in $300 contest, 5.1% in $5 contest
Calvin Johnson has been really disappointing this season, but clearly Sharps see an edge in this matchup vs the Bears. He’s actually pretty reasonably priced and is still a top 10 receiver in this league. There’s rhetoric all over the daily fantasy world about why CJ has struggled this season, but I don’t really but any of it. The Lions have had some really bad matchups to start the year. So I don’t think we should be afraid to use him at all.
25.2% ownership in $300 contest, 9.2% in $5 contest
Are you seeing a pattern here? Sharps don’t seem fazed by poor recent performance, especially if the matchup is right. It is here with Lacy going up against a really poor Chargers run D and his Packers are projected to score 30+ points. Lacy’s price is amazing on both sites. One thing I like here is the Packers got their RT Bryan Bulaga back last week, who is a great run blocker. Bulaga performed poorly in that game according to PFF, but my sense is that O-lineman take about a game to get back into form coming off an injury. I bet we see Bulaga’s rating go way up this week, and Lacy’s performance as well.
24.4% ownership in $300 contest, 4.7% in $5 contest
This probably was the biggest shock of the entire list for me. Matthews is definitely a player I liked a bit this week, but I did not expect him to be one of the highest owned WRs of the contests. But as I analyze the matchup, this makes a lot more sense. Matthews plays exclusively in the slot, which means he’ll likely get slot corner Trumaine Mcbride in coverage, someone who’s been rated horribly by PFF. Having lost Prince Amukamara for 2-4 weeks, the Giants are now woefully thin at corner, so even if Mcbride moves to the outside, Matthews should get an even juicier matchup. His team is projected to score 27 points, and the Giants have been solid against the run all year. The Eagles should score a lot through the air, Bradford/Matthews stack anyone?
6.2% ownership in $300 contest, 1.7% in $5 contest
Not incredibly high ownership by any means, but I did want to point this one out. Miller is cheap and it seems like some Sharps like him this week. I think he’s a very viable cheap RB option.
31.4% ownership in $5 contest, 21.8% in $300 contest
The field seems much higher on Hopkins than the Sharps, Calvin Johnson seems like a good alternative to Hopkins and is a few hundred dollars cheaper on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I do think Hopkins is still a solid play in cash and GPPs though, I think we should just try to own him lower than the field.
24.5% ownership in $5 contest, 11.8% ownership in $300
Some really bad recency bias by the recreational players here. Broncos are definitely a solid choice this week, but they aren’t the best choice. The D/ST I really like? The Jets. Coming off a bye and getting stud D-lineman Sheldon Richardson back, the Jets already had a great matchup vs the Redskins. But, with star LT Trent Williams out for the Redskins, and LG Kory Lichtensteiger ruled out, this may become a field day for the Jets D. Kirk Cousins is already turnover prone, and the absence of Williams is going to cause a lot more sacks and a lot more forced throws.
– Nelson Agohlor missed practice again, and I highly doubt he will play this weekend. Josh Huff plays outside receiver like Agohlor, got a lot more snaps when he went down last week, and did quite well. I like him for GPPs at $5,300 on FanDuel and only $3,100 on DraftKings.
– Odell Beckham Jr. didn’t practice, but Tom Coughlin says he doesn’t need to in order to play. Still, I think we certainly can bump up Rueben Randle and even Dwayne Harris here, as they’ll likely receive more targets and also may get a huge boost if OBJ ends up not playing Monday Night.
– Alshon Jeffery was limited again Friday, but it seems like he has a good chance to play Sunday. I love him if he plays. His price of only $6,400 on DraftKings is ridiculous considering how good he’s been the past 2 years. And he has big upside against a bad Lions secondary. And Martellus Bennett is now questionable, he could be one of their only legit options.
– Steve Smith Sr. told reporters he likely will miss week 6. Kamar Aiken performed well in Smith’s absence and also played 64 out of 70 snaps. I still think his price is too low on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and I love his matchup against the 49ers.
– Bilal Powell is questionable even after the Bye. Chris Ivory was fantastic with Powell out in London, getting 29 carries for 166 yards and a TD. The Redskins have a good run D, but I expect this game to really go the Jets way. Ivory should get 20+ carries easily, and a couple of catches, well worth is $5,100 price tag on DraftKings. Make sure to check and see Powell’s status Sunday.
– The Lions are likely to be without Haloti Ngata and Tyrunn Walker, their two run stuffing DTs, for a 2nd straight week. The Cardinals had ridiculous success running the ball against Detroit last week, averaging over 7 yards a carry. I think Matt Forte surprises and the Bears offense as a whole moves the ball better than people expect.View all posts by Max J Steinberg