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Daily Fantasy NBA Run Down 2/28

I’m going against the grain a little bit with my analysis tonight, but if you want to win a Daily Fantasy GPP, you have to make some great plays that few people are making. I’m also going to add something new to this article: predicting who I think will be the most played players tonight on FanDuel and explain what I think of them. Without further ado…

Plays I Love

Kyrie Irving – The stars are really aligning for Irving tonight, with every fantasy factor pointing in his favor. Here’s a list of them in bullet format:

1) Irving has essentially no backup with Jarrett Jack starting and only Delladova as the backup SG. His minutes should top 40 like they did against the Thunder a few nights ago.

2) Irving’s performance is most correlated to defensive efficiency, and Utah is tied for the worst team defensive efficiency in the league.

3) Irving is playing at home, where he fairs much better and where stat keepers are more liberal with giving out assists.

4) His previous matchup with the Jazz was awesome, he topped 50 fantasy points and this was at Utah.

The only downside to Irving is a) his salary is a little high and b) he’ll be heavily used because of his great game against the Thunder the other day. Still, he’s a great play tonight.

Rudy Gay and Isaiah Thomas – They will also be heavily used tonight but with Cousins out their usage should be sky high and they have a great matchup against the Lakers. Passing up on these two would be foolish.

Kent Bazemore – Has been getting a ton of minutes lately and his salary is still dirt cheap. The Kings defense is terrible especially without Cousins and he should get a lot of minutes and fill up the stat sheet tonight. An absolute must-play tonight.

Gerald Green – My prediction is that Dragic will be out tonight but even if he isn’t the Suns are at home up against a woeful New Orleans team that may be without Anthony Davis tonight. The Suns will likely wreck the Pelicans with Gerald Green leading the charge, and I especially love that he’ll have low usage tonight coming off a poor game a couple of nights ago. I also love Ish Smith and Markieff Morris if Dragic sits, Smith should get a ton of play and pick up some steals and Morris will be relied on for offense.

Popular Play I’m Fading

Jason Thompson – He’ll probably be heavily used tonight, but I see a ton of reasons not to play him. In 2 games against the Lakers this year he’s played horribly, and in games where Cousin’s has been out he hasn’t gotten consistent minutes like you would think. Obviously, he could have a good game but I don’t think it’s likely and if you have the balls fading him could pay off big time.

Usage Prediction

Most used PGs:

Kyrie Irving – I’d play him anyway.

Isaiah Thomas – Also a great play, would not fade.

Patty Mills – Had a fantastic previous game against Charlotte but with the Spurs at almost full strength I don’t expect him to produce 35+ FP games again.

Russell Westbrook – Minutes are increasing, seems like a fine play.

Low Usage PG: Ish Smith – May start and even if he doesn’t could hit his value in a blowout.

Most Used SGs:

Bazemore – My top play tonight way too cheap to ever consider fading. Most start.

Gordon Hayward – Relatively cheap and will be highly used because of a good previous game, but there’s not really any reason to think he is a sure thing. I think he’s a great player to fade tonight.

Most Used SFs:

Rudy Gay – Great Play.

Kevin Durant – Seems to just get plays even when you wouldn’t expect, but against a slow Memphis team and with Westbrooks minutes increasing the likelyhood of a 50+ fantasy point game is low. Fade.

Low Usage Play: Richard Jefferson – Did well against the Cavs earlier this year and is a nice punt when there are few options other than Gay.

Most played PFs:

Jason Thompson – As I stated before I like a fade here.

Derrick Williams – A fine play but more of a SF who likes to play on the wing. Minutes not guaranteed. Risky but playable.

Pau Gasol – A really nice play with Cousins out, I’ll have him in a lot of lineups tonight.

Most Played Cs:

?????

Center is clearly one of the strangest positions tonight with no real clear plays. My guess is people will go high and choose players like Noah or Jefferson, or go with Hawes who is a fine play tonight. But my pick is Tiago Splitter, who’s starting, cheap, and has done well as of late. The Bobcats are also bad against Centers and he’ll probably be used very little.

Good Luck!

View all posts by Max J Steinberg
Max J Steinberg

About the Author

Max J Steinberg Max Steinberg is a professional poker player and a top Daily Fantasy player who uses his creativity and mathematical abilities he cultivated as a poker player to win money on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He already has several big tournament scores to his name including the Victiv Bowl and countless MLB Monster wins. Follow him on twitter @maxjsteinberg.

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