Daily Fantasy Baseball 5/4: Hitter Values and Fades
We’re a month into the MLB season, and the tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings so far have been awesome. I absolutely love all the live events that FanDuel is putting on (by the way, there’s a $25 and $200 Playboy Mansion qualifier on FanDuel tonight if you want to try to join me there in June) and DraftKings has really been pushing up the guarantees in their MLB tournaments, even if it means costing them some money in overlay.
DraftKings is trying a $200 WSOP ME qualifier today instead of the normal $27 one. I like this a lot, it seems a little hopeless to win a 600 person qualifier (I say this even though I luck-sacked one during the basketball season), but a 78 person qualifier is much more attainable. And I think enough people will pay up the $200.
We have a game at Coors today, but both FanDuel and DraftKings have gone back to jacking up the prices of the players in that game, so most of my recommendations will be outside of Coors (aside from one great DraftKings play). There are still plenty of high over/unders to choose from though, so I’m very happy with these picks.
Chris Carter ($2,400, OF) – Carter has been boom or bust all season, waffling between striking out in 3 out of 4 ABs and crushing Home Runs over the left field wall at Minute Maid Park. But the benefit of Carter’s high variance style is that it seems to manipulate FanDuel’s algorithm into consistently undervaluing him. He goes against one of the worst lefty starting pitchers in baseball Ross Detwiler, who has big righty-lefty splits (right-handers crush him) and should get wrecked by a red hot Astro’s offense.
I would like to note, however, that Carter’s price will certainly mean he’ll get high ownership. Since he’s very capable of putting up a -1 here, I recommend fading him in qualifier tournaments.
Kevin Kiermaier ($2,300, OF) – It will be interesting to see what the Rays do with their lineup here. Against righties, they usually go with David Dejesus at leadoff, but the Rays organization is smart enough to realize that stacking righties in Fenway is a good bet. If Kiermaier bats leadoff, he’s an absolute must-play, but even if he’s towards the bottom of the order I still like him. He’s up against Clay Buchholz who has had some quality games this season, but has also had some very poor ones, and right-handers have never had a problem hitting him.
Evan Longoria ($3,100, 3B) – The argument for Longoria is the exact same argument for Kiermaier, except in this instance we’re more certain about Longoria’s production and he’ll certainly be batting clean-up. Nolan Arenado and Yasmani Tomas are way too expensive tonight, and even though he’s coming off a great game, Trevor Plouffe isn’t even close. There are simply no other 3B with the value Longoria has tonight.
Adrian Gonzalez ($4,200, 1B) – Gonzalez’s park and match up are both fantastic. He’s facing Kyle Lohse, who has been absolutely awful this season and Adrian benefits from playing in hitter friendly Miller Park, which is one of the best HR parks for lefties in baseball. You could make a legit argument for playing Gonzalez on FanDuel at $4,300, but Gonzalez is actually priced $100 lower on DraftKings, something that almost never occurs. With a price so exceptional, he’s close to must-play territory tonight.
Billy Butler ($3,300, 1B) – Ground ball hitters fare better against fly ball pitchers, and Butler’s extreme ground ball tendencies should bode well against one of the most extreme fly ball pitchers in baseball in Phil Hughes. He also benefits from going to a pretty good righty park in Minnesota. In 30 ABs, Butler has only struck out 3 times against Hughes and has a solid .760 OPS.
Nick Hundley ($3,400, C) – The Rockies are back in Coors tonight and every hitter in their lineup has a completely jacked-up price, except one. Hundley should start at catcher tonight (but check their lineup this afternoon just in case), and goes against a really weak pitcher in Josh Collmenter. At only $3,400, Hundley probably is the best dollar for dollar player on DraftKings. And since idiots will likely overpay for Evan Gattis tonight, he’ll likely be under-used as well.
FanDuel GPP Fade
Evan Gattis ($3,400, C)
This may seem a little nuts. There aren’t many other viable plays at catcher tonight aside from Gattis, but that’s actually a great reason not to use him, especially in qualifier tournaments. Gattis has been hotter than the sun lately and is coming of a 2 HR game. Tonight, he goes up against a really weak lefty in Ross Detwiler. He’s a very, very good play, but good plays are not infallible. He’s capable of having a 0-4 or 0-5 day, and if he does, you’ll be in a great position on the field. One catcher I recommend in Gattis’ place is Yasmani Grandal ($2,400), who actually is better value than Gattis and will do well in Miller Park against Kyle Lohse.
If you have an questions or comments, make sure to shoot me a tweet @maxjsteinberg. Good luck tonight!View all posts by Max J Steinberg