College Football Daily Fantasy Week 7 Picks – Early Slate
UPDATED 1 HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF
FanDuel prices 1st. DraftKings priced 2nd
(!) Injury/Starting Job Watch
Matt Johnson $9,600 – Is Johnson ever not in play? Bowling Green is -11.5 and projected for 39 points. This isn’t quite as good as the UMass matchup last week, but anything is possible with Bowling Green’s up-tempo offense and sub-par defense for a shootout.
Seth Russell $9,800/$9,000 – While West Virginia does have a decent defense this year, this is a very tasty matchup for Russell. Baylor is -21.5, so we shouldn’t be concerned about a blowout, and the Bears are projected for 48 points.
Patrick Mahomes $9,300/$9,500 – Remember how Baylor put up 66 at Kansas in three quarters without basically even trying. Guess what? Texas Tech gets the Jayhawks this week. Tech is -31 and projected for 54 points. Mahomes is
Luke Falk $8,800/$8,900 – Washington State is coming off a huge win at Oregon and gets a very favorable matchup at home versus Oregon State. The Courgars are -8 and projected for 36 points.
Dak Prescott $8,600/$8,600 – Mississippi State is in nonconference play for the second week in the row (classic SEC scheduling). However, Louisiana Tech is one of the better nonpower five schools and they have a former SEC quarterback in Jeff Driskel under center (former Florida QB). Still, this game should have plenty of points as State is favored by 13.5 and projected for 37 points.
Chad Kelly $8,400/$7,400 – Really, really good price on DraftKings. Memphis has been outscoring opponents all season, but Ole Miss is by far the best opponent they’ve faced. The Rebels should take advantage of this mediocre secondary as the Rebels are -10.5 and projected for 41 points.
Joe Hubener $7,100/$5,700 – Hubener regained his starting role against TCU. He only completed 13-of-33 passes for 157 yards, but he also had 26 rushes for 111 yards and four touchdowns. While we probably won’t see four rushing touchdowns again, he should post at least solid numbers on the ground again with some better passing statistics.
Seth Collins $6,900/$7,100 – Oregon State is an underdog on the road, but Washington State’s defense is below average, and Collins’ upside as a dual-threat quarterback is always appealing.
Eric Dungey $6,800 (FanDuel) – Dungey is back at quarterback for Syracuse, and his dual0threat ability against a mediocre Virginia defense makes him very appealing for his price.
James Summers $4,500/$5,800 – East Carolina is -13.5 and projected for 46 points. Summers runs as often as any quarterback in the nation. The problem? East Carolina has consistently been rotating two quarterbacks. There is risk here from playing time, but if Summers gets the nod to start, he is undoubtedly a must-play, and there is no way FanDuel should have him at the minimum one way or the other.
Ryan Willis $4,500/$4,700 – Willis is slated to get the start again versus Texas Tech. He played all the snaps against Baylor and should in this contest as well. Tech has one of the worst defenses and Willis is minimum salary. Surely, he’s worth it in a GPP lineup or two.
Danny Cameron $4,500/$4,200 (!) – If Nate Sudfeld can’t play, Cameron will get the start again for Indiana. A lot of people tweeted at me about Indiana players last Saturday morning wanting to know the status of Sudfeld and Jordan Howard. While I did respond with the info I could find, I made the point that playing at Penn State is one of the worst matchups you can possibly have and wouldn’t bother with them one way or the other. Cameron started and wasn’t effective in the slightest. This matchup with Rutgers at home is like night and day in comparison to the Nittany Lions. There is no line for this game, but regardless of Sudfeld’s and Howard’s status, you can bet Indiana will be favored and they will score points.
George Bollas $4,500 (FanDuel) (!) – This one could be a pain to follow and figure out, so I don’t blame you if you don’t want to deal with it. However, Kent State is at UMass, the same UMass team that yielded 62 points to Bowling Green last week (and it could’ve easily been worse). Kent State is a seven-point underdog and only projected for 25 points, but Bollas is a dual-threat quarterback at minimum salary, and 25 points isn’t the end of the world by any means. Here’s the catch though. There is an open battle at quarterback this week between Bollas Colin Reardon. Reardon has been the main starter, but he was benched last week for Bollas, and Bollas looked better with his playmaking. If Bollas gets the nod on Saturday, he could be a huge steal in GPPs, but there is obviously some risk, especially if we don’t get the news in time. This is a 3:30 ET kick and this game is only on FanDuel.
Dalvin Cook $8,900/$9,000 – Florida State is only projected for 27 points, but the Seminoles are -7.5, at home and Louisville has an average rush defense. Plus, the passing game for Florida State is a work-in-progress, and with Cook healthy, he should get a heavy volume of touches in an expected close game.
Shock Linwood $8,100/$7,200 – Outstanding price on DraftKings. Apply the same reasoning here for Seth Russell. We shouldn’t have to worry about a blowout and starters getting pulled.
Derrick Henry $7,300/$7,300 – One of the best games of the day with Alabama playing at undefeated Texas A&M. While Bama is favored by 4.5, more importantly A&M is allowing 4.6 YPC (82nd), and their schedule has been fairly average so far. Henry will get another 25 or so carries for over 100 yards.
Zach Langer $7,300/$6,600 – Tulsa is a 13.5-point underdog, but they are projected for 33 points. When Tulsa was a 31-point underdog at Oklahoma and still projected for a lot of points, Langer got 31 carries for 161 yards and a touchdown. Langer always has a ton of upside, and East Carolina is allowing 189.6 yards on the ground (85th).
DeAndre Washington $7,100/$6,300 – I’m usually not crazy about Texas Tech running backs, but this is Kansas….
Jordan Canzeri $6,900/$6,200 – This is a really complex situation. Good news for Canzeri: LeShun Daniels is still out and C.J. Beathard will be playing fairly banged up. Canzeri should get another big workload. Bad news for Canzeri: This entire offense is very banged up (QB playing hurt, Tevaun Smith (No 1 WR) is out, Jake Duzey (No. 1 TE) is still out and Iowa will be without both starting offensive tackles. Also, Derek Mitchell is also back this week (the next running back). Also, Northwestern has one of the best defenses as Iowa is projected for 22 points as a two-point favorite. I can’t see Canzeri getting over 40 carries again this week, but he should still get well into the 20s as Iowa is just trying to get to its bye week next week to get healthy. The matchup is hardly ideal, but given how many touches he will get at this still very reasonable price, he’s certainly in play.
Wendell Smallwood $6,800/$6,200 – No matter what the matchup has been, Smallwood has gone over 100 yards in each contest so far this season. West Virginia is a 21-point underdog, but Smallwood has outstanding upside, and Baylor’s rush defense numbers are skewed based on that they have played a very soft schedule and Texas Tech is a pass heavy offense. Smallwood is also just simply too cheap.
Dare Ogunbowale $6,800/$4,900 (!) – Ogunbowale will be ready to go Saturday, but the injury watch is the other running back Taiwan Deal, who suffered an ankle injury at Nebraska last wek. Deal is questionable. If Deal can’t play, Ogunbowale could see a significant increase in carries. Plus, Purdue is 107th in YPC rush defense and 109th in rush yards allowed. Wisconsin is -23.5 and projected for 36 points.
Wisconsin’s Corey Clement cleared to play http://t.co/m2IW7jMOwH
— CollegeFootballTalk (@CFTalk) October 17, 2015
This takes away the option of using Ogunbowale
Jordan Howard $6,500/$6,000 (!) – If Howard is starting, he is signficantly underpriced in a great matchup at home with Rutgers.
Jaylen Walton $6,500/$4,500 – Finally Ole Miss gets a great matchup in a contest that shouldn’t be a blowout. The only other game this happened was when the Rebels hosted Vanderbilt (still not the best matchup) and Walton racked up 21 carries for 133 yards and a touchdown. I think we’ll see similar numbers here with Ole Miss projected for 41 points with a -10.5 line.
Taquan Mizzell $6,500 (FanDuel) – One of the best PPR backs in all of college football. Outstanding matchup getting Syracuse at home with a -7 line and projected for 31 points.
Justin Jackson $5,800/$5,200 – Similar to Canzeri for Iowa, this matchup stinks for Jackson. However, as long as the game isn’t a blowout (which I’ll be stunned if it is), Jackson is a lock for over 20 carries. That’s a great deal at this price.
Ralph Webb $5,300/$5,400 – Absolute no-brainer here. Webb has gotten 25 carries in each of the last three games and provides solid PPR value. Simply way underpriced, but South Carolina is also 100th in rushing yards allowed and 114th in yards per carry allowed.
Chris Hairston $5,300/$5,200 – Tulsa is 122nd in rushing yards allowed. East Carolina is -13.5 and projected for 46 points. Hairston is the No. 1 back. If James Summers doesn’t start or doesn’t play very much, Hairston could be the homerun of all running backs.
Roger Lewis $8,400 (DraftKings) – Like Johnson, is Lewis ever not in play?
Corey Coleman $8,600/$8,200 – Same thing as last week. He’s not my top choice at that price, but his upside is the best and particularly in play for GPPs.
Tajae Sharpe $7,900 (FanDuel) – Finally FanDuel raised Sharpe’s price. But nevertheless, Sharpe is still in play going against a weak Kent State defense.
Leonte Carroo $7,800/$7,000 – I missed out on picking Carroo last week. I won’t make that same mistake again going up against a mediocre Indiana defense.
Christian Kirk $7,300/$5,900 – I know, it’s Alabama. However, Nick Saban has typically struggled with up-tempo spread teams (yes, I remember the 59-0 beatdown last year), and I actually think Kirk is underpriced in general. We saw Ole Miss do well earlier this year at Alabama in their up-tempo spread scheme, and while A&M’s isn’t the exact same, I think we’ll see the Aggies and Kirk put up some good numbers.
Laquon Treadwell $7,100/$5,700 – Treadwill gets a very juice matchup against Memphis with the Rebels -10.5 and projected for 41 points.
Jakeem Grant $6,900/$7,200 – Is FanDuel ever going to raise Grant’s price? Do they know Texas Tech has Kansas this weekend?
Pharoh Cooper $6,900/$6,900 – Despite South Carolina’s offensive issues, Cooper continues to get the ball and make big plays. Along with putting up over 100 yards in three games this season, he continues to get a few carries as well and has outstanding upside at home against Vanderbilt.
Gabe Marks $6,600/$7,200 – Marks is the X WR, so it’s no surprise he’s emerged more as the clear No. 1 threat. With that, he’s too cheap and has a great matchup at home with Oregon State.
Keyarris Garrett $6,600/$6,900 & Joshua Atkinson $6,600/$5,400 – With Keevan Lucas out for the season, Garrett and Atkinson have higher floors to already go with superb upsides. Tulsa is projected for 33 points and will throw a lot to keep up with East Carolina.
River Cracraft $6,300/$5,400 – The slot wide receiver who provides a solid floor and a pretty food ceiling too. Washington State is -8 and projected for 36 points.
Trent Taylor $6,200/$6,300 – Even though Louisiana Tech is at Mississippi State, Taylor is way underpriced and as the main Tech wide receiver.
Shelton Gibson $6,100/$4,700 – West Virginia will be throwing a ton to keep up with Baylor, but I’m not buying that the Bears defense is improved enough to limit the West Virginia offense from scoring.
Fred Ross $6,100/$4,100 – A huge steal on DraftKings. Ross is the leading wide receiver on Mississippi State, are -13.5 and projected for 37 points.
Isaiah Jones $5,900/$5,800 – Another wide receiver where his price should be increasing but it just isn’t moving. Jones is on pace for well over 1,000 yards, and he has an outstanding matchup at home against Tulsa.
Canaan Severin $5,200 (FanDuel) – Way too cheap with a matchup at home against Syracuse where the Cavaliers are -7 and projected for 31 points.
Marken Michel $5,000 (FanDuel) – UMass is projected for 32 points and -7. Michel has been putting up much better numbers than a $5k player in competitive contests or against favorable defenses.
Gehrig Dieter $4,800 (DraftKings) – Really good upside for someone at this price in the Falcon Fast offense.
Trevon Brown $4,800/$4,600 – The No. 2 wide receiver on East Carolina. Again, the Pirates have one of the best matchups and projections of the entire day, and Brown is way too cheap.
Jerome Lane $4,300 (DraftKings) – Akron will need to throw a lot in the end to catch up to Bowling Green. Lane is the one wide receiver on Akron who can make some noise, and he’s already caught four touchdowns.
TE is FanDuel only
Rodney Mills $3,300 – No need to overthink it.
Jake Butt $3,000 – Butt hasn’t had a performance like his first one against Utah, but he’s still one of the best targets for Jake Rudock and Michigan will likely be in a much more competitive game this weekend where he will be needed.
Bucky Hodges $3,000 – Always good for a few catches and a popular red zone target.View all posts by Nick Juskewycz