College Football Daily Fantasy – Week 14 Picks
FanDuel prices first. DraftKings prices second.
Some really bizarre price differentials between FanDuel and DraftKings. Take advantage where you can.
Deshaun Watson $10,900/$8,600 – Much better on DraftKings, but I’ll list him on both sites for the sake of GPPs. This is the ACC Championship between No. 1 Clemson and No. 10 North Carolina. The game will be played in Charlotte, which is actually about halfway between the two schools and should be neutral between fan base attendance. If Clemson wins, they will very likely have the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. North Carolina must win and get some help to make it into the top four. I’m expecting a shootout here. Clemson is -5 and projected for 36 points. Watson has had three games of 44-plus FPTS, and those all game in shootouts.
Brandon Doughty $9,500/$8,400 – The CUSA Championship between Western Kentucky and Southern Miss. This game will be played at WKU. Western Kentucky is -7.5 and projected for 41 points. Doughty is slightly on the expensive side in general, but this game should be a shootout and Doughty has huge upside.
Marquise Williams $8,600/$8,300 – The quarterback on the other side of the field of the ACC Championship. Like Watson, Williams is a dual-threat quarterback with tremendous upside. North Carolina is projected for 31 points with a +5 line. While Williams does have as much upside as Watson, there is a slightly lower floor.
Nick Mullens $7,800/$7,300 – We’ve had several CUSA DFS games this year, but they almost always involve Western Kentucky. Southern Miss runs a very similar system to them with their shotgun spread attack, but they are are more up-tempo by running 77.3 plays per game (T31). Southern Miss is projected for 34 points with a +7.5 line. Mullens is slightly underpriced straight up, but even more so in this matchup as Southern Miss will likely throw a bit more to keep up with Western Kentucky.
Joe Hubener $7,500/$5,700 – Hubener runs the ball as much as any quarterback in the FBS, and he’s put up great numbers for his price against the weaker defenses of the Big 12. Kansas State is +5.5 and projected for 26 points, but Hubener is pretty underpriced on DraftKings and K-State is at home.
*Chris Johnson $7,200/$6,700 – While Texas’ defense has had its moments, this is easily my favorite play at quarterback. The Big 12 doesn’t have a championship game, so there are are a few Big 12 regular-season games on Championship Weekend. Johnson is the third-string quarterback for Baylor, who is incredibly athletic and a big dual-threat guy. Johnson is very underpriced. He only played the second half against Oklahoma State and racked up 22.72 FPTS. The game against TCU was one of the worst weather games of the year with crazy freezing rain and wind. The field was in awful shape and players were playing in slow motion. This matchup is great with Baylor -20.5 at home against Texas with a projected 44 points.
C.J. Beathard $5,800/$5,200 – This is the Big Ten Championship between No. 4 Iowa and No. 5 Michigan State. This game will be played in Indianapolis, but look for the crowd to be about 65% Iowa 35% MSU. Beathard has had a handful of solid games fantasy wise, but he’s had a few duds as well. The duds have come in two circumstances. First, the cold and heavy wind games (at Wisconsin, at Nebraska). Second, when his groin was at its worst (at Northwestern, Maryland). While not completely healthy, Beathard is more healthy than he was six weeks ago, and this game is indoors. While Michigan State does have a good defense, their strength is their rush D while their pass D is mediocre. We should see at least 20 FPTS out of Beathard with the potential for closer to 30.
Derrick Henry $10,000/$8,500 – The SEC Championship is between No. 2 Alabama and No. 18 Florda. This game will be played in Atlanta. Florida’s offense has been absolutely terrible since they lost their starting quarterback Will Grier to suspension, so that No. 18 ranking is completely misleading. However, Florida still has a very good defense (3.3 yards per rush allowed, T6) and this isn’t the greatest matchup for Henry. Nevertheless, as long as this game is competitive, Nick Saban has proved he isn’t worried about running Henry into the ground as he got 38 carries against LSU and 46 touches at Auburn. Alabama is -17.5 and projected for 29 points. I don’t think Henry gets to 200 yards, but he still should have one of the best performances of the day.
Donnel Pumphrey $9,100/$8,100 – This is the Mountain West Championship between San Diego State and Air Force. This game will be played in San Diego. SDSU is -6.5 and projected for 28 points. It’s not the greatest matchup in the world since Air Force is a triple-option team that keeps the clock running. However, Air Force allows 4.4 YPRA (T68) and I still expect Pumphrey to reach 150 yards rushing.
Anthony Wales $8,600/$6,800 – While Western Kentucky does attack a fair amount through the air, Wales has been fantastic on the ground in Leon Allen and D’Andre Ferby’s absence. He’s rushed for over 100 yards in every CUSA game since becoming the starter. That won’t change against Southern Miss.
Elijah Hood $8,400/$6,900 – Definitely more of a GPP play as UNC is an underdog to Clemson. But Hood has been on a terror as of late, and this is the best offense Clemson has faced all season.
Christian McCaffrey $8,000/$8,000 – The Pac-12 Championship between No. 7 Stanford and No. 20 USC (somehow ranked there with four losses). Pretty much everyone is picking Stanford here, especially since they beat USC by double digits at USC earlier this year. This game is also at Stanford. However, USC is only a four-point underdog, and the USC players were extremely thrilled that Clay Helton was named the head coach. I could very easily see USC winning this game despite the fact that USC iis playing for the Rose Bowl while Stanford has an outside shot at the CFP. I still expect McCaffrey to put up 150 total yards in a higher-scoring game than people think (Stanford is projected for 32 points) with USC using all of its weapons to keep up with them.
Wendell Smallwood $6,600/$5,900 – GPP since Smallwood doesn’t get a huge majority of the carries. However, West Virginia is -5.5 and projected for 32 points at Kansas State. Kansas State allows 4.5 YPRA (T71).
Shock Linwood $6,500/$5,800 – As mentioned before, Baylor -20.5 at home against Texas with a projected 44 points. They are back to playing a weaker opponent when Linwood was in the $8k range on FanDuel and $7k range on DraftKings. Texas allows 4.3 YPRA (T60). With Johnson’s running ability in the red zone, Linwood’s TD expectancy does take a minor hit, but with Baylor -20.5. Linwood should still have a big game.
* Wayne Gallman $6,200/$6,200 – Huge steal on FanDuel and solid value on DraftKings. North Carolina allows 4.7 YPRA (T83) and Clemson is projected for 36 points. Gallman has gone over 100 yards in eight of 12 games, but two of those misses came in early blowouts where he was pulled.
Demarcus Ayres $7,800/$5,900 – The American championship between No. 22 Temple and No. 19 Houston. This game is at Houston where they are -6 and projected for 30 points. This is much better on DraftKings, but I’ll list him on both sites for the sake of GPPs. Temple is a tough defense for anyone, but Ayres has been the primary weapon on the outside and the tougher matchups haven’t stopped him so far.
Taywan Taylor $6,900/$5,900 – The expected shootout in the CUSA Championship. Taylor’s receptions are a little bit of a moving target, but he’s clearly the No. 1 receiver and should see a high volume of targets in a close game.
Corey Coleman $6,800/$6,400 – Coleman’s production has taken a big hit recently for three reasons. 1. Bad weather in a couple games. 2. Playing better defenses. 3. Quarterbacks getting injured in the middle of the game. While Johnson is the quarterback and not Seth Russell, Baylor has a high projection once again versus a weak opponent. Coleman is underpriced as a result.
*Mike Thomas $6,800/$5,700 – Since Week 3, Thomas has posted anywhere from 18.4-to-43.5 FPTS. He has 1,111 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season. He is fairly underpriced, but he especially is in this matchup where Southern Miss will be throwing a lot to keep up with Western Kentucky. Since most people don’t know who Thomas is, he probably won’t have huge ownership.
JuJu Smith $6,400//$6,400 – Reasonably priced on DraftKings but certainly too cheap on FanDuel. USC has been more run heavy since Helton took over as head coach, but Smith’s price has dropped too much with Smith running bad in the red zone when it comes to touchdowns.
Shelton Gibson $6,200/$5,000 – Your classic boom or bust wide receiver. It’s as simple as that.
*Artavis Scott $4,500/$5,500 – The No. 1 receiver on the No. 1 team in a good matchup is minimum salary on FanDuel? Ooooookay.
Matt Vandeberg $4,500/$4,000 – Vandeberg has been a go-to receiver for Beathard this year and has particularly thrived against the teams that stop the run well while playing a lot of one-on-one on the outside. Michigan State will blitz Beathard a lot, much like Pat Narduzzi did for Pittsburgh when they played Iowa (former MSU defensive coordinator), and Vandeberg was Beathard’s man to throw a lot of quick short passes to (seven catches for 45 yards). This is more of a punt option if you’re trying to stack a few expensive guys.
TE is FanDuel only
*Tyler Higbee $4,700 – Higbee is back after his knee injury and did so in explosive fashion last week with six catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns. This is an expected shootout and Higbee should have another big game.
Austin Hooper $3,800 – Kevin Hogan’s go-to guy in the red zone.
Henry Krieger Coble $2,900 – He gets as many receptions as almost any tight end in the country, but he’s simply running bad in the red zone overall this year. He’s had several catches stopped just short of the goal line and gets a fair amount of red zone targets.
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