College Football Daily Fantasy Week 12 Picks – Night Slate
FanDuel prices first DraftKings prices second.
The night slate is brutal for FanDuel players. They really need to increase the amount of games.
(UPDATED 10:15 a.m. ET)
Baker Mayfield $9,500/$8,400 – We still don’t know if Trevone Boykin is going to play, so Vegas went with a tweener line of Oklahoma -11.5. If Boykin plays, look for the line to move closer to -7 tomorrow. If he doesn’t play, it should move to -14 and maybe even more than that. As of right now, Oklahoma is projected to score 39 points. Mayfield has been on fire in the new offense for the Sooners. TCU is tied for 68th in yards per pass allowed (YPPA).
Luke Falk $8,300 (DraftKings) – Falk continues to pitch it around, but since he isn’t a dual-threat quarterback, he needs the touchdowns to warrant this price. He typically picks up those five-touchdown games in great matchups. Well, Washington State is -15 at home and projected for 39 points going against Colorado defense that is tied for 60th in YPPA.
Matt Davis $7,300 (DraftKings) – Davis is your boom or bust quarterback with his running ability, but SMU has had some brutal matchups as of late. That’s not the case this week as SMU is a rare favorite. SMU is -3 at home and projected for 30 points against Tulane.
Jarrett Stidham $8,500/$7,100 – Even though I don’t think Baylor is nearly as good without Seth Russell, the sharks are all over Baylor on this game and I’m not that high on Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is undefeated at home against a one-loss Baylor team (without its starting quarterback) who has yet to beat a team with a winning record and the line is PK? Baylor’s two worst offensive games came in the rain (Baylor moved the ball very well against Kansas State but the Wildcats just ate up the clock). There won’t be rain this week in Stillwater, and Baylor is projected for 38 points. I will also add that while he is a much better play on DraftKings given the salaries, the FanDuel options at quarterback are absolutely brutal in the night slate and he really is one of the best options even at $8,500.
Kenny Potter $5,700 (DraftKings) – Certainly a boom or bust play here. Potter is a dual-threat quarterback who can really tack up the rushing yards in a soft matchup. Hawaii is about as friendly as it gets even off the mainland. San Jose State is -10 and projected for 32 points.
Foster Sawyer $5,400 (DraftKings) – Foster Sawyer will get the start (FanDuel doesn’t have Sawyer in their player listing even though he played last week … ). While Sawyer clearly struggled, you have to remember this – a backup quarterback will always play better with a week of preparation versus being thrown into the middle of a game all of a sudden. The starting quarterback always works with the first team pretty much 100 percent of the time to make sure the timing and chemistry is as good as it can be for the home stretch. Now with head coach Gary Patterson being able to have a gameplan for Oklahoma with Sawyer, the quarterback will be much more prepared. Yes, not having Josh Doctson stinks, but it’s not like TCU is all of a sudden going to be run-heavy offense and they do have other playmakers on the outside. Plus, Sawyer is very cheap.
Christian McCaffrey $8,600 (DraftKings) – Is there a more consistent back in college football? The answer is no. Drawing Cal at home, who is tied for 91st in yards per rush allowed (YPRA) is very ideal.
Tyler Ervin $8,400 (DraftKings) – Ervin’s success is definitely correlated to the matchup San Jose State gets. They are at Hawaii (tied for 77th in YPRA) and the Spartans are 10-point favorites. He won’t be used nearly as much as the other top-priced running backs, but he has as much upside as anyone.
Donnel Pumphrey $7,900 (DraftKings) – UNLV is 124th in YPRA. San Diego State is -13.5. Pumphrey has already ran for 1,171 yards.
Alex Collins $7,800/$6,900 – Arkansas is running the ball as well as anyone right now. Collins has rushed for over 100 yards in every game this year except against Alabama. This includes games at LSU and at Ole Miss the last two weeks. Mississippi State is tied for 66th in YPRA.
Sony Michel $6,600/$7,300 – Georgia Southern is a better team and has a better rush defense than you think (I actually think this game is close), but Georgia is a very heavy-run team and Michel is still certainly underpriced for how many touches he gets.
Paul Harris $5,800 (DraftKings) – As long as Hawaii isn’t getting blown out, Harris gets a huge workload in the backfield and is definitely the main guy since Norm Chow was let go as head coach. This game should be relatively competitive and with San Jose State tied for 97th in YPRA, Harris should go over 100 yards.
Ralph Webb $6,200/$4,400 – Best play of the night slate. Texas A&M is only -6.5 at Vanderbilt and A&M is tied for 102nd in YPRA. The sharks are all over Vandy in this one and Webb is a very good back. Webb is underpriced without a great matchup, but the A&M factor at home makes it even better.
Chris Swain $5,900/$5,300 – Triple option alert with Navy. Swain has a superb matchup with Tulsa in what should be a shootout. The touchdowns are always scary, but Swain has huge upside.
Russell Hansbrough $4,500/$4,600 – Finally Hansbrough is healthy and getting all the touches like he should. He got 26 carries for 117 yards versus BYU, and BYU actually has a pretty good rush defense. Tennessee has a mediocre rush defenses and this game is in Columbia. Hansbrough is too cheap regardless of the opponent, but this contest makes him one of the best plays of the night.
Corey Coleman $8,700/$7,600 – If I’m trusting the sharks, I trust Coleman will have a big game.
Gabe Marks (DraftKings) $6,900 – Any of the Wazzu wide receivers are options in this tasty matchup with Colorado, but Marks is easily the best play as the X receiver.
Sterling Shepard $7,700/$6,700 – While TCU’s defense has improved some from the beginning of the year, it still isn’t great by any means. Shepard has been a bit of a wild card this year, but this is a game where the Sooners will be throwing quite a bit, and I don’t expect it to be a blowout where they will be running it more in the second half.
Keyarris Garrett $7,500/$6,800 – Tulsa will need to throw a lot to keep with Navy, but this isn’t anything new for them. Garrett typically goes off in the games where they need to play from behind as well.
Nelson Spruce (DraftKings) $6,000 – Spruce is finally priced a little bit more reasonably, but with Colorado expected to throw a lot playing from behind (usually a balanced offense), I really like Spruce’s upside here.
Drew Morgan $5,900/$4,200 – Morgan has really evolved into a nice No. 1 option this year for Brandon Allen. Morgan has been very good outside of the tough matchups with Alabama and LSU (also excluding the blowout with Tennessee-Martin where they ran it excessively and took the starters out), and Morgan should have at least another solid outing for his price.
Devonte Boyd (DraftKings) $5,200 – I’m not crazy about this matchup with San Diego State, but this price is very good with Boyd’s upside.
KaVontae Turpin $5,100/$5,100 – With Josh Doctson out, Turpin is the new No. 1 receiver for TCU.
David Glidden $4,600/$4,200 – Still way too cheap, especially for this expected shootout.
TE is FanDuel only
Hunter Henry $3,200 – By far the best option. It’s not even close.
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