College Football Daily Fantasy Week 11 Picks – Early Slate
FanDuel prices first. DraftKings prices second.
! Injury/Starter Watch
Not a ton of options I like at quarterback this week. Therefore, I’m just going to list my top four picks and a bonus GPP option for FanDuel players.
Patrick Mahomes $9,300/$8,500 – Shocker, it’s another expected shootout in the Big 12. Texas Tech is -5.5 and projected for 39 points. Kansas State usually has a good pass defense, but that’s not the case this year as they are tied for 102nd in yards per pass allowed (YPPA). Tech throws it 58.2% of the time (third most in FBS). Mahomes will go over 400 yards and tack on some rushing statistics as well.
J.T. Barrett $9,300/$8,600 – I don’t think there’s anyway head coach Urban Meyer will start Cardale Jones. The zone read offense is what Ohio State does best, and Barrett is a better fit for that. Plus, it’s much more difficult for defenses to contain on every down with Barrett’s speed and vision. Ohio State is -16 and projected for 31 points. Historically, Illinois plays Ohio State very well, this is an 11:00 am CT kick in Champaign and with Michigan State to look forward to, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this being close. However, I still expect great numbers from Barrett with his dual-threat ability.
Marquise Williams $8,900/$8,400 – It’s amazing how much better this team has gotten with Gene Chizik at defensive coordinator. No one could have predicted preseason that North Carolina would be -13 and projected for 40 points against Miami. This team would be undefeated had it not been for Williams’ three red zone interceptions against South Carolina in the first game of the year. But since then, Williams has been on fire and absolutely obliterated Duke last week, which actually has a decent defense. Williams may not put up 47.76 FPTS again, but hitting 40 FPTS again should happen.
Joe Hubener $6,200/$6,500 – One of the biggest running quarterbacks is going against one of the worst defenses in the FBS. While you may look at his Big 12 performances this year and be afraid of his bad outings against Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, those are the three decent or legit defenses in the Big 12. Tech has the worst defense besides Kansas. Given that Kansas State is projected for 33 points, I think this is easily the best quarterback play of the day.
GPP Bonus – Keenan Reynolds $7,100 (FanDuel) – Navy has one of the best situations with being -21 and projected for 46 points against SMU. SMU has one of the worst defenses in the FBS overall, and they have to deal with the triple option. Reynolds is always a GPP play since it’s the triple option, but this is as good of a matchup all year, and his upside is very good. However, keep in mind he could be mediocre or even a bust if he doesn’t rack up the rushing touchdowns.
There are A LOT of running backs with fantastic situations this week. I feel it’s impossible to narrow it down to just a few top plays, so I’m going to do a tier one and tier two list. Players on both lists should be considered for GPPs and every single one has the potential to go off. However, tier one are my favorite plays and the guys you should consider for cash formats.
Dalvin Cook $9,300/$8,900 – NC State has a decent rush defense, but they’ve played a very soft schedule and Clemson ran for 240 yards against them (172 for Wayne Gallman). Florida State is -9.5 and projected for 32 points. I think NC State keeps this close, but it won’t be because they stop Cook.
Ezekiel Elliott $9,100/$8,400 – With Barrett back at quarterback, the running game should be a lot easier for Elliott. Zeke will rush for over 100 yards once again and always has huge upside.
C.J. Prosise $7,500/$7,500 ! – Prosise is still questionable heading into the Wake Forest contest. While I don’t really have a strong gut feeling or a read from the media on this one, this is Wake Forest and a neck injury we are talking about. So, despite that Notre Dame is in the playoff hunt, I could easily see him sitting this one out. But whether it’s him or Josh Adams at $6,300/$5,900, Notre Dame is -27 and projected for 40 points.
Wayne Gallman $7,200/$6,500 – It’s remarkable how much Vegas loves Clemson in just the last couple weeks. I know it’s Syracuse and that Eric Dungey will likely not play, but Clemson is now -30 on the road and projected for 44 points. Gallman is still too cheap in the average matchup, but this is amazing value with Syracuse tied for 82nd in YPRA .
Elijah Hood $7,000/$6,600 – Miami has one of the worst rush defenses in the FBS as they are tied for 199th in YPRA. Hood has been fantastic as the featured running back and is still priced reasonably.
Sony Michel $6,800/$6,600 – Auburn is the slight favorite in this game and Georgia is only projected for 26 points, but I like Georgia here in this contest and for them to run the ball. Auburn is tied for 98th in yards per rush allowed (YPRA) while Georgia is tied for 12th in rush yards per carry. Georgia is also runs the ball 57.8 percent of the time, which is 29th in FBS, and that number has been a lot higher since their quarterback situation has gone into shambles. I called for Michel to have a big game last week, and he racked up 165 yards on 24 touches with a touchdown. I’d look for similar numbers here.
Kelvin Taylor $6,400/$6,100 – While Florida has clinched the SEC East, they still have College Football Playoff hopes having only one loss on the season. Since Treon Harris has taken over for the suspended Will Grier, the Florida passing attack hasn’t been as strong, and they will likely run against a South Carolina defense that’s Florida has been Having said that is tied for 109th in YPRA. Even though Florida is only -7.5, they are only projected for 27 points against a South Carolina team that needs to win out to get to a bowl game and that I could see the Gamecocks winning with them playing much better since Steve Spurrier “retired”, I expect a great game from Taylor.
De’Veon Smith $5,700/$6,000 – Smith is back healthy and the primary running back. This is a great matchup with Michigan -13 and projected for 40 points. Indiana is tied for 77th in YPRA. The only downside is that Drake Johnson is getting some touches as well, but Smith is certainly going to get the majority.
Derrick Henry $8,900/$8,600 – Conspiracy theory time. Alabama always plays Tennessee in its protected crossover game on the third Saturday of October (which is perfectly fine). However, since Nick Saban took the Alabama job in 2006, Alabama has gotten a bye week every year after that contest for their team to rest up for the LSU game in early November. The game after LSU has always been Mississippi State. There have been two exceptions to this. In 2008, Alabama didn’t get a bye week before LSU, but they hosted Arkansas State (a 6-6 Sun Belt team that season), which is essentially a bye. In 2012, which was the first year Texas A&M and Missouri were in the SEC and caused a schedule change, Mississippi State was used as the sandwich game between Tennessee and LSU, and Johnny Manziel’s A&M team was on deck after LSU. Bama miraculously found a way to beat LSU in Baton Rouge, but then Manziel gashed Bama in Tuscaloosa with the Aggies winning.
There was no way that schedule in 2012 was going to happen again, and the schedule went back to the way Saban likes it – Tennessee, bye, LSU, Mississippi State, FCS school, Auburn (yes Bama fans, I realize LSU has always had a bye week or horrible FBS opponent before they play you as well, but they haven’t had nearly the same six weeks of balanced luxury).
Before Saban arrived at Alabama, the schedule always went Tennessee, Mississippi State, LSU, Auburn in four consecutive weeks with sometimes a bad FBS school scheduled after Tennessee. Obviously Saban turned the program around, but Alabama was 4-12 from 2003-2006 in those SEC games. The schedule balance is a huge deal.
Okay, with that tangent over, let’s look at this game. I think this game will be close. Bama usually does not play well the week after LSU, and they haven’t scored a first quarter touchdown the week after LSU since 2009. The public likes Alabama for obvious reasons, and the big bettors are somewhat torn but mostly with Mississippi State (unusual in a game involving Bama). I do think Henry will reach 100 yards rushing and obviously have to include him considering the workload he is getting, but he will be used a ton and isn’t a top play.
DeAndre Washington $7,400/$6,500 – Believe it or not, as much as Tech likes to pitch it around, Washington has received at least 19 carries in five of seven Big 12 contests. Tech is -5.5 and projected for 39 points.
Aaron Green $6,200/$6,900 – TCU is projected for 59 points against Kansas. Seriously, 59 points. Of course though, playing Kansas means likely limited playing time for the starters. TCU is -45. The good news though for Green is that he’s very cheap and will still likely have a good game. Every Big 12 opponent has had its starting running back easily gone over 100 yards while some other teams have had two 100-yard rushers. The only exception to this is Oklahoma State, but they had nine different people run the ball, and they have rotated several people all season. With Green’s price and how bad Kansas’ defense is, he will certainly go over 100 yards and likely find the end zone once or twice.
Mike Warren $6,200/$5,600 – If you don’t know about Mike Warren by now, you should. Since he became the featured back in Week 3 and despite Iowa State only winning two games since, Warren has gone over 100 yards in five of seven contests. Iowa State is +14, but they do run the ball quite a bit with Warren’s talents even when they are down quite a bit. I think he gets to 100 yards again at home.
Chris Swain $6,100 (FanDuel) – Like I said for Reynolds, it’s always a risk using someone in the triple option, but the upside is through the roof, especially in this matchup against SMU.
Charles Jones $4,700/$4,100 – The primary running back for Kansas State. His upside is limited since Huebener runs it so often, but he has as good of a matchup possible with Texas Tech ranked 123rd in YPRA and Kansas State projected for 33 points.
Dwayne Washington $4,500/$3,900 – With Myles Gaskin out, Washington will be the featured back. Unfortunately though, Arizona State has one of the best rush defenses in the FBS as they are T9 in YPRA. Still, at minimum salary, he’s a decent punt option.
Aaron Burbridge $7,500/$7,200 – Burbridge was my top play last week for the night slate and he dominated with 35.4 FPTS. I don’t think he will hit that mark again this week, but he will eclipse 100 yards for the eighth time this year. Maryland is tied for 98th in YPPA while Michigan State is -14.5 and projected for 36 points.
Jakeem Grant $7,400/$6,600 – Mahomes’ favorite target in the air-raid offense. I’ll be shocked if Grant doesn’t exceed 100 yards.
William Fuller $7,300/$7,100 – It’s unreal how many touchdowns he catches in comparison to his number of receptions overall each game. Notre Dame is -27 and projected for 40 points. Wake Forest is tied for 98th in YPPA. No reason why Fuller won’t have another big day.
Ryan Switzer $5,400/$4,800 – North Carolina is-13 and projected for 40 points. Switzer has overachieved a little bit in his last two games, but he definitely has explosive play-making ability and is too cheap.
Travis Rudolph $5,400/$4,500 – The No. 1 wide receiver on Florida State is still undepriced regardless of who the quarterback is. Sean McGuire is probably a slight bump for him though.
Artavis Scott $5,300/$6,200 – Way too cheap on FanDuel with Clemson -30 and projected for 44 points against Syracuse.
KaVontae Turpin $5,200/$5,000 – Josh Doctson will play, but I don’t think it’s wise paying his expensive salary in a contest he will likely only play a half or three quarters at the most. Plus, he is coming off the wrist injury, and I could easily see head coach Gary Patterson pulling him particularly early. Turpin has started to take over as the No. 2 WR as opposed to Kolby Listenbee with seven catches in each of his last two games, yet Turpin is still very cheap.
Allen Lazard $5,200/$4,700 – The No. 1 wide receiver on Iowa State. Lazard has gone over 100 yards in two of his last three games and has done really well in garbage time.
DeMarcus Robinson $4,800/$4,200 – Simply too cheap going against a weak South Carolina defense.
David Glidden $4,600/$4,200 – I completely whiffed on Glidden last week, but I’m going to chalk that one up as a fluke. This is another great matchup for Oklahoma State with the Cowboys -14 and projected for 37 points.
Tre’ Parmalee $4,600/$3,600 – While Kansas is a monstrous +45 against TCU, keep in mind TCU’s defense isn’t that strong and Parmalee has taken advantage of garbage time often this year. He’s hit double digit FPTS five times and four of those have been for 18 or more (DraftKings scoring).
TE is FanDuel only
Jaylen Samuels $5,600 – The leading wide receiver and gets goal line carries. Despite the price jump and playing Florida State, no-brainer here.
Jake Butt $3,300 – I still can’t believe how bad Butt is running in the red zone. He was tackled just short of the goal line again last week and went over 100 yards. Michigan is projected for 40 points against a weak Indiana defense. Come on Jake!
Jake McGee $2,900 – Great matchup with South Carolina and is definitely on the cheap end.View all posts by Nick Juskewycz