CFB DFS Week 3 Picks – Night Slate
FanDuel prices first. DraftKings prices second.
! indicates injury watch
Trevone Boykin $10,500/$9,900 – Boykin is very expensive, particularly on FanDuel, but Boykin’s upside is as good as it gets. His dual threat ability combined with TCU projected to score 52 points. While the -37 spread is a little bit of a concern, Boykin played well into several games last season in blowouts where he put up over 40 FPTS and 50 points on the scoreboard.
Luke Falk $9,800/$9,900 – Washington State got back on track at Rutgers last weekend with 478 passing yards from Falk and 559 yards total from the Cougars. Washington State is favored by 24 and projected for 45 points at home against a very much rebuilding Wyoming squad that has already lost to North Dakota and Eastern Michigan at home by a combined score of 42-72. Falk will have no problem carving up this young Cowboys secondary.
Jared Goff $8,800 – I flipped flopped on this one a bit in picking Goff for DFS, but I’m going to ride it out with how I think this game will go. Cal is -6.5 at Texas, and I actually like Cal to beat Texas by a lot more than that. The Longhorns did bounce back against Rice, but they were outgained by nearly 200 yards and survived on the plus-four turnovers. Plus, not only did the Texas defense allow 462 yards to Rice and 527 yards to Notre Dame, they have struggled significantly against the better up-tempo teams under Charlie Strong (see BYU, TCU last year). This Cal team is very dangerous in Dykes’ third year at the helm, and I think this Cal -6.5 is Vegas begging the public to take Texas given that it’s hard to see that line and actually believe what you’re seeing. Cal wins big and Goff has a great night.
Josh Rosen $8,100/$8,600 –
A lot of people think this is going to be a close game, but UCLA is a 17-point favorite for a reason. Josh Rosen has been superb as a true freshman with all the talent he has surrounding him, and UCLA is better at essentially every position on the field. The BYU defense is still a fairly big question mark to me, and the Bruins are projected for 39 points at home. Rosen should toss for at least 300 yards and have a shot at four-plus TDs.
C.J. Beathard $6,700/$6,500 – We knew Beathard had the mobility, but we weren’t sure how much Iowa would call designed runs for him. Well, Bethard got the call for a QB draw in the red zone against Illinois State for a TD and had several QB designed runs against Iowa State for big yardage. The Hawkeyes are projected for 27 points as a 5.5-point favorite, and Bethard’s dual-threat ability makes him appealing at this price.
Christian Hackenberg $6,400/$6,000 – By far the biggest weakness for Penn State is their OL. Hackenberg was sacked 10 times against Temple and it was horrendous rainy weather last week against Buffalo. Penn State is at home with the white out at night against a depleted Rutgers team. Despite some poor games as well last year, Hackenberg also had some huge games, one of which where he threw for 309 yards at Rutgers. I understand the hesitation here given how many bad games Hackenberg has had, but he’s actually a pretty good QB if you give him time, and Rutgers’ defense is mediocre at best. Penn State is projected for 27 points, and If Hackenberg can’t get protection and get the passing game going, I’m not sure it’ll come to life at all this year.
Kendall Thompson $6,400 (DraftKings) (!) – For whatever reason, despite both sites having the Utah at Fresno State contest, Thompson is only listed on DraftKings. He is the second string QB for Utah. We still don’t know the status of Travis Wilson, but VegasInsider has him listed as doubtful, so assuming we get word early enough on Saturday that he’s ruled out, Thompson should be considered. He came in to finish off the Utah State game last Friday night when Wilson went down, and he looked very good going 8-of-10 for 56 yards, but more importantly added six rushes for 23 yards and a TD. Utah is projected for 34 points, and Thompson is one of the best value plays of the night (assuming Wilson is out).
Phillip Ely $5,600 (DraftKings) – Iowa State at Toledo is only on DraftKings. The Rockets are -7 at home and projected for 33 points. We already saw Toledo upset Arkansas last week, and this matchup is significantly easier.
I actually completely disagree with Rotoworld’s analysis on Ely (can be found when clicking on Ely’s name on Draftkings), “Ely may never be a top-tier fantasy option, but he (has) enough talent around him to be usable in a matchup play. Next week against Iowa State does not look incredibly favorable, as it were.”
Being a seven-point favorite at home against a weak secondary and projected for 31 points isn’t favorable? Ely is an Alabama transfer with great talent and he should do a lot better statistically than he did last week.
Nick Chubb $10,000/$9,900 – South Carolina has given up over 200 yards rushing in each of its first two contests (vs UNC & Kentucky). The Gamecocks now face arguably the best running back in the nation with Nick Chubb and have a ton of uncertainty at the QB position to keep the ball away from Chubb. The Georgia running back barely missed the 200-yard mark last week and somehow didn’t find the end zone, but that will all change with the Bulldogs as a 17-point favorite at home and projected for 35 points. Chubb will hit the 200-mark this week and find the end zone more than once.
Devontae Booker $9,800/$9,200 – If you don’t use Thompson on Draftkings, you certainly want to consider Booker. Given that there are a lot of good expensive RBs this week, I don’t expect Booker to be owned very highly. However, given that Utah is a 14-point favorite at Fresno State. projected for 34 points and likely going in with a backup QB, we could see a few extra touches for Booker (he had 31 carries last week). Booker has an outstanding floor and ceiling, which makes him a legit option at the top end.
Alex Collins $8,600/$8,900 – While 20 carries for 54 yards and TD (plus two catches for nine yards) isn’t a complete whiff, it sure felt like it last week given that Arkansas was -21 and projected for a ton of points. According to Andrew Hutchinson of Whole Hog Sports, Collins was dealing with an infection and didn’t practice leading up to the game (reported after the game). Collins is healthy now and faces a Texas Tech squad that had yielded 544 yards on the ground in its first two games. Plus, despite that the Razorbacks only scored 12 points in their loss to Toledo, they actually racked up 515 yards of offense with only ONE turnover (that’s unreal). Arkansas won’t lay another egg back home, and Collins is in line for a huge game.
Paul Perkins $8,400/$8,800 – Like I mentioned before, UCLA is a 17-point favorite and despite BYU’s thrilling ride to start the year, their defense has not been impressive and there’s a reason why UCLA is favored by this much. Perkins is the primary RB who also has PPR value (seven catches already on the season for 82 yards). Perkins could hit the 30 FPTS mark again for the second straight week.
Michael Adkins II $7,100/$5,700 – Much better value on DraftKings but playable on both sites. Adkins is off to a hot start with 31 carries for 209 yards and three TDs in his first two games. Colorado faces instate rival Colorado State in Denver (neutral field) as a three-point favorite, and the Buffaloes are three-point favorites. Last week despite holding Minnesota to 23 points in an OT game, they allowed over 400 yards of offense that included 180 yards on the ground. Considering the matchup, the workload Adkins gets and his price, he has an overall great situation.
Kareem Hunt $6,800 (DraftKings) –
If you don’t know about Hunt, he was one of the best RBs in the nation last season. He absolutely torched weak rush defenses last year. In fact, he rushed for over 100 yards in EVERY game he played in last season, which includes contests against Missouri and at Cincinnati. He also rushed for 265 yards against Bowling Green and 271 yards versus Arkansas State in the GoDaddy Bowl. So where was he against Arkansas? Hunt was suspended for the first two games of the year for a violation of team rules (nice of them to count that cancelled game against Stony Brook). There is a little risk that Hunt may not get the insane volume he usually gets, but I see no reason why he wouldn’t step right into getting the vast majority of the carries. Toledo is at home, -7 and projected for 33 points. Assuming the coaching staff doesn’t pull any funny business, this should be one of the best plays of the night.
Jordan Canzeri $6,500/$6,700 (!) – LeShun Daniels went down with an ankle injury against Iowa State, so Canzeri got 100% of the workload for the rest of the contest to finish with 24 carries for 124 yards and a TD. Daniels is listed as doubtful for the contest against Pittsburgh, and I don’t expect him to play Saturday night (although definitely confirm this before putting Canzeri on your roster). Derek Mitchell wasn’t with the team at Iowa State due to a student code of conduct issue, but he has been reinstated and will be backing up Canzeri. Still, I expect Canzeri to get a vast majority of the workload against Pittsburgh, and he brings PPR value already having five catches for 109 yards. Iowa is -5.5 at home and projected for 27 points.
Nelson Spruce $8,500/$7,200 – Very underpriced on DraftKings. One of the best WRs in college football gets a favorable draw with in-state rival Colorado State. The Buffaloes are projected for 30 points as a three-point favorite, and Colorado State gave up big chunks of yards through the air against Minnesota last week (a run heavy team). I expect Spruce to be able to carve up the CSU secondary.
JuJu Smith $7,100 (DraftKings only) – Smith is available for $8,100 on FanDuel, but quite frankly, I just think that’s too expensive on the $1,000 difference. USC is at home against Stanford as a 10-point favorite and projected for 30 points. However, I do like Stanford to play USC tough and have this come down to the wire as most of these contests have in recent years. This isn’t the greatest matchup with Stanford’s rock-solid defense and slow-tempo run-heavy offense, but Smith is easily the No. 1 WR, and I think Smith is still in line for at least seven catches for 80 yards and a possible TD with upside beyond this.
Jordan Payton $6,800/$5,700 – Surprise, better value on DraftKings, but playable on both sites. You already know that I like UCLA to rack up points Saturday night, and Payton is the clear No. 1 WR and a stud on the Bruins. He only has eight catches for 124 yards and a TD in his first two games, but he’s certainly capable of doing that in a single game, and it could happen against BYU.
River Cracraft $6,500 (FanDuel) Dom Williams $6,000 (DraftKings) – The Washington State WRs have fairly different prices on both sites, but since Luke Falk likes to spread the wealth, we’re going to take the best values on each site. As mentioned with Falk, Washington State is a 24-point favorite and projected for 45 points. Both WRs will play a big role in those points.
Jakeem Grant $6,400 (FanDuel only) – Outrageously underpriced on FanDuel. While Texas Tech is an 11-point underdog, that does mean the Red Raiders will be throwing more and they are still projected for 30 points. Grant is easily the best weapon on Tech, and always has the shot of going over 100 yards each week.
Bryce Treggs $5,900/$4,900 – Definitely too cheap on DraftKings and a bit too cheap on FanDuel. While Treggs was only fourth in receiving yards for Cal last season, he pulled in 52 receptions (tied for second best) and is seeing nearly every snap this year as the slot WR (Cal lives in three and four WR sets). Cal has played a lot of its bench so far through two games, but it likely won’t have that chance against Texas, which means Treggs has huge upside of possibly eclipsing 100 yards (did so twice last year only playing partial snaps).
Corey Jones $5,600 (DraftKings) – Jones caught eight balls for 61 yards and a TD against Arkansas. None of the other WRs had more than two catches. Plus, Jones caught three balls for 11 yards in the first half against Stony Brook before the game was cancelled due to lightning. Jones is easily Ely’s No. 1 guy, and I see no reason why that should change against a weak ISU secondary.
Tevaun Smith $4,800/$4,500 –
Despite that Matt Vandeberg has been more of Beathard’s go-to guy to start out the season, Beathard is definitely looking Smith’s way a lot with the defense putting their best defender on him. However, Smith is Iowa’s best WR and has made a ton of highlight-reel plays (did have an outstanding back-shoulder TD grab against ISU). While Smith has been a little bit slow out of the gate, that won’t last and he’s simply too cheap.
Chris Godwin $4,800/$3,900 – Godwin is the new X WR for Penn State and already has 10 catches for 156 yards. This has been done despite how poor Penn State’s offense has been. As I said with Hackenberg, this is easily the best matchup for the Nittany Lions, and Godwin should be able to have his best game of the year yet.
Jared Cornelius $4,500/$4,500 – With Keon Hatcher out, someone on Arkansas is going to need to step up. Cornelius is the other outside WR on Arkansas and should see increased targets. Neither site adjusted for Hatcher’s injury. Arkansas is projected for 41 points, and Cornelius should be the leading WR in the game.
TE is FanDuel only
Hunter Henry $3,600 – Again, Hatcher is out for Arkansas. This can only be positive news for Henry as he now leads the Razorbacks in receiving this year. Somehow Henry hasn’t caught a TD yet this year, but that will change against the Red Raiders this week, and he’ll put up the best TE numbers of the night.
Austin Hooper $3,300 – Stanford does have a tough draw with USC, but TEs usually do well when trailing. This is because the offense is forced to throw more and defenses tend to play soft, which leaves the TEs open over the middle (trust me there’s a correlation here). Hooper doesn’t have a high ceiling, but he has a very reasonable floor and very few people will use him.
Jerell Adams $3,100 – Same reasoning for Hooper. South Carolina is an underdog, and Adams is also second in receiving for South Carolina. With the exception of Henry, he’s as good of a play you’ll find in this brutal slate for TE.View all posts by Nick Juskewycz