Fantasy Break Down: WAS @ TOR and MIL @ IND 2/27
With only 4 games tonight, there will be a lot of similar plays, so making one or two great plays could be the difference between winning that headsup or placing high in a GPP. I’ll examine these games using previous matchup, DvP, and other relevant statistics.
WAS @ TOR
Notable injuries: Nene (OUT), Seraphin (OUT)
Kyle Lowry – The Wizards struggle against PGs in general so before looking at Lowry’s 3 previous matchups with Washington, I expected him to have some very good games. He didn’t have any 50+ fantasy point games that you hope out of a $8,000+ player, but he was solid in every game hovering around 40 fantasy points in each game. Lowry also has the extra benefit of playing at home, where stat keepers seem to be a little more lenient when scoring assists and Toronto is a 5 point favorite. In fact, Lowry had a 40 fantasy point game in his only home matchup with the Wizards, and that was with Rudy Gay. Lowry seems to be an incredibly safe play tonight and I’ll have him in all my lineups.
Trevor Booker – Some people may be scared off by Booker’s poor game last night but with both Nene and Kevin Seraphin out he’s going to get all the minutes he can handle. He started once in a previous matchup with Toronto and had a line of 8/13/2/2, which would more than cover his very low price tag on all sites. If you fade him tonight, you’ll probably regret it.
Amir Johnson – I absolutely love Johnson tonight for several reasons. The first reason is matchup, Trevor Booker is a bad defender allowing 56% FG at the rim, and his backup will be Al Harrington who is an unathletic tweener who will get absolutely owned. Johnson is big and physical and should dominate the glass tonight. Johnson’s salary is also very low, dipping under $5,000 on Fanduel. Lastly, I think Johnson will get very few plays tonight because he hasn’t been tearing it up and Patrick Patterson steals many of his minutes off the bench. While Johnson hasn’t had any great performances in previous matchups with the Wiz, I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a double double tonight.
Beal and Gortat – With Nene’s absence, someone will have to step up and take a few more shots in his absence and it really could be any one of these players. Beal is probably helped the most, since he’s the biggest pure scorer out of the bunch. Gortat should also get a bump in minutes. Ariza’s and Wall’s values probably don’t change that much, but Wall has had a great game against Toronto in the past.
MIL @ IND
George Hill – Hill hasn’t had any good games in his two previous matchups with Milwaukee (in fact, he had one pathetic under 10 FP game), and seems like one of the worst plays on the Pacers tonight (aka still viable). The Pacers are at home which should help Hill, but I’m going to stay away from him tonight.
Lance Stephenson – Had an almost triple double in one previous matchup with Milwaukee, and one poor game. As the biggest assist player on the Pacers and playing at home, I expect Stephenson to have a solid game. I’m not prioritizing him but he’s a viable option.
Paul George – His best game against the Pacers came away in a relatively close game, and his game at home was mediocre. I think he’s an ok pick but too pricey at almost $9k where he’s surely only going to get 30 minutes at most.
David West – Had a 30/7/5/1 line away in the previous matchup with the Bucks but only 7/7 at home early in the season. Milwaukee struggled mightily against big men, so I expect West to probably have a line closer to the 30/7 game that happened more recently. He’s a pretty reasonable price and is a viable play. However, I think he’s a great fade in GPPs since he’ll be played a lot but could easily have a poor game.
Roy Hibbert – He utterly disappointed us with a 4/6/3 game on the road recently against the Bucks, but did have an absolute monster game against them earlier in the season with a 24/10/1/8 (yes 8 blocks) line in only 31 minutes. The Bucks are absolutely woeful against Centers so it makes sense that Hibbert could have a bounce back game. He’ll probably be played a lot tonight, but I’m guessing less than he should because of his recent poor performances. I really like him tonight and will be using him a lot.
Since the Bucks are 15 point underdogs and it makes sense to stay away from any Milwaukee player tonight, I’m going to list some viable GPP plays for tonight on the team but I don’t necessarily think these are good value plays.
Brandon Knight – Knight had a ridiculous game against the Pacers going for 30/5/8 in their recent matchup. But that’s about all that Knight has going for him and while previous matchup is a good indicator it’s unlikely Knight has a good game. The Pacers are a great defensive team and with Ramon Sessions now backing Knight up Larry Drew has shown that even Knight could be benched at any time. I still think he’s worth a shot in GPPs though, he’ll be played very little.
Zaza Pachulia – Zaza is probably the safest play on the Bucks tonight. In 2 previous matchups he’s racked up a high amount of offensive rebounds and shots, it seems that he gives Hibbert a little trouble for one reason or another. He’s also a cheap player. I think he’s a viable option in GPPs and could be a great option if you want to fade Hibbert and Mozgov.
O.J. Mayo – Mayo is still coming off the bench, which should be a minus but is a nice plus in a game that’s incredibly likely to be a blowout. Mayo had great PPM and USG% in both previous matchups with the Pacers and is dirt cheap, he could hit value easily and is a viable GPP play.
Giannis Antetokounmpo – The 6’9″ SG has been doing well lately, topping 30 fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games. His downside is he’ll probably be the most popular play on the Bucks because of this fact, so I’d rather play Mayo in GPPs.
Good Luck!View all posts by Max J Steinberg