5/9 MLB DFS: Best Pitchers
A full slate of Friday MLB evening games, so we have plenty of options to choose from. But the talent of pitchers tonight is outstanding and making the right pick is a little bit difficult.
Let’s see if we can simplify it by looking at the different salaries and the Vegas lines. The weather looks good for the most part, although some showers are expected for a few games. Nonetheless, I’d expect all games to be played.
(all salaries via DraftKings)
Julio Teheran $9,800 – The over/under in runs is 6.5 (second-lowest of the night) and the Braves are the second-biggest favorite. However, Teheran is only the seventh-most expensive pitcher. This is pretty much a no-brainer. Do keep in mind though this is one of the games with potential showers. Again, I think it’ll be fine, but check in before game time to be sure.
Tyson Ross $8,200 – Yes, he’s going against Jose Fernandez, the best pitcher in baseball right now. But don’t get caught up on getting the win. The O/U is 5.5 runs and the Padres are only +120. GianCarlo Stanton is having a great season, but the Marlins depth isn’t very good and are second in strikeouts (batting wise). He should accumulate a lot of Ks and have low risk in terms of runs allowed. Ross can go 8IP as well.
Jose Fernandez $12,800 – Duh
Johnny Cueto $12,200 – If someone is going to fork up the money for a top-line pitcher, most will go with Fernandez. Here’s why Cueto could be a good play in GPPs. He’s thrown two complete games and never gone fewer than seven games. He’s never given up more than five hits or two runs. He put up 51.5 FPTS in an outing. The O/U is 7 runs and the Reds are -165. The catch is that the Rockies lead MLB in pretty much every offensive category. In GPP, I would go with Cueto considering what Vegas is telling us and how much upside he has. In 50/50 or heads up, Fernandez is a better play. Rain is also on the radar for this game.
Jenrry Mejia $7,500 – If you pay for a top-salary pitcher, you may want to grab someone on the cheaper end. Luckily, there are two guys who are legit value plays who fit that criteria. Mejia was $9,500 for his last start, but had a poor outing for -7.5 FPTS. DraftKings’ algorithm is interesting in that if a pitcher has a bad outing, his salary plummets quite a bit for the next game. That’s not always the case, but it is most of the time. Mejia will probably only go six innings for you on a good day (seven at best), but he racks up more than one K per inning. He’s had several great outings and didn’t give up a run in three of his six starts (produced 28.8 FPTS and another game at 26.1). The Mets are -120 with an O/U of 7 runs.
Jason Vargas $6,800 – This is the other legit value play. Vargas is one the same trend as Mejia – four great or solid outings followed by a few weak ones. He went for -4.6 FPTS in his last game against the Tigers and his salary has dropped from $9,700 all the way to $6,800. Vargas has thrown over 100 pitches in six of his seven games and can go 8IP deep. His one downfall is he doesn’t get a lot of Ks, but with the Royals -110 and an O/U of 7 runs, $6,800 is tremendous value for the matchup.View all posts by Nick Juskewycz