4 Plays From 5 Games NBA 2/26
Wednesdays are always tough because of there are so many games to follow. So I analyzed 5 different matchups tonight using previous performance, DvP and other relevant stats. Without further Ado…
Orlando @ Philadelphia
Thad Young – After the firesale of players in Philadelphia, Young has emerged as the 76ers go-to offensive player, avging over 50 fantasy points a game in his last 2. Philadelphia is shockingly only a 3 point underdog so it’ll be tough to avoid Young when his price is reasonable on all sites. However, he’ll be used by many people so fading him in GPPs could have a massive benefit if he for some reason has an unlikely bad game, especially with some strong plays at PF in Nowitzki, Harris, Randolph, Brand, and Ibaka.
Nic Vucevic – Vucevic has been doing well ever since he’s gotten back from his concussion and with Glen Davis bought out he really has no reliable backup. Philadelphia is absolutely terrible against big men, and they should be even worse now playing Thad Young (a laughable 60% FG% allowed at the rim this season, by far worst in the league) at center at points in the game. He had 21/16 in his previous matchup with Philly and I see no reason why he doesn’t at least match that line. He’s reasonably priced and should be an absolute tear on the glass tonight.
James Anderson – He’s cheap on all sites and had high USG% in both previous matchups. He probably will be overlooked but I could see him getting 30 fantasy points tonight.
Jameer Nelson – He’s actually never played against Philly this season and has been doing badly as of later with a sinus infection, but he’s cheap and I think he’ll be overlooked even though he could have an absolutely monstrous game tonight. I don’t buy that his sinus infection will keep him down, but he is risky.
Notes: I think essentially all Orlando’s starters, Oladipo, Harkless, and Harris included, are good if not great starts tonight. Kyle O’Quinn is also a sleeper as a cheap player who could get 20-25 minutes tonight and do well with it. On Philly’s side, MCW had a triple double last time they played the Magic at home, he could have a great game tonight.
Atlanta @ Boston
Elton Brand – The Celtics are soft inside especially without Jared Sullinger who is most likely out with a concussion. The Celtics are especially a terrible rebounding team and I expect Brand to feast on the glass. He’s still cheap on most sites.
High Risk/High Reward
Kris Humphries – The only center tonight on Boston against a incredibly small Atlanta frontcourt? Yes please.
Under the Radar
Brandon Bass – He hasn’t exactly been tearing the world apart lately but he has just a ridiculous matchup going against Demarre Carroll and Mike Scott tonight. With Sullinger out his minutes should be 35+ and he’s been known to play better with Rondo who is playing tonight. He’s probably will not be used a lot tonight, but he may outperform the high profile plays like Thad Young dollar for dollar.
Riding the Hot Hand
Jeff Teague – Has performed well in Paul Millsap’s absence and still has a low salary especially on Fan Duel. He’s on the road and Boston is middle of the back against PG but that may not matter when Atlanta needs Teague’s scoring. He also had surprisingly high USG in both previous games with Boston even though Millsap was healthy for both and even Horford played in one.
Cleveland vs OKC
Notes: No Previous matchup.
Kevin Durant – His salary is ridiculous and with Westbrook back (albeit in limited minutes) his production should ho down. However, with so many value plays tonight it’s quite easy to fit Durant in and in general it’s better to use as many low salary, great value players as possible if you have a high salary player to fill his shoes. The Cavs are very poor defensively so I don’t see why Durant shouldn’t top 50 FPTS tonight.
Serge Ibaka – With Perkins out and against a small Cleveland frontcourt, Ibaka should get 40+ minutes tonight as long as it’s not a total blowout. His salary is a little high but I think he’s worth considering in GPPs in case he owns the Cleveland bigs.
New Orleans vs Dallas
Dirk Nowitzki – Dirk had 2 very good games in his previous matchups with NOP, one of which was a 40 point game at home. He’s home again against an even softer New Orleans squad and should have a good game.
Monta Ellis – He’ll be under the radar tonight but Ellis has a lot of things going for him. He had 2 great games with very high USG in previous matchups with NOP and will be at home tonight which should help his assist totals. He’s very cheap on FanDuel.
High Salary Gamble
Anthony Davis – Last time he played the Mavs in Dallas he had 28/14 and inexplicably no blocks or steals. He’s not a strong play but if you need salary filled he could be a good pick, especially in GPPs since he’s capable of 50+ FP nights.
Eric Gordon – Had 2 great previous games against Dallas with high USG, but the backcourt rotation in New Orleans is just way too hard to follow to want to use Gordon.
LAL @ Memphis
Zach Randolph – Had 2 great games against LA and the matchup is absolutely golden for big men. I see no reason why he doesn’t have another great one.
Mike Conley – LA is a great matchup for PGs but in his previous matchup he didn’t fair to well and his USG% wasn’t that high. Still, he has a fair salary and is at home so he’s definitely worth a look.
Marc Gasol – This appears to be a great matchup for Gasol, but he’s definitely not a banger down low nor is he a tenacious rebounder. That being said he had a good game against the Lakers in a previous matchup, so he could be a solid play.
Good Luck TonightView all posts by Max J Steinberg