2015 Masters: Which Stars Should You Target and Fade for the PGA $2.2M Millionaire Maker?
As we have discussed in previous articles and on Twitter, DraftKings did daily fantasy players a favor by releasing the salaries and opening the tournament in advance. The odds at sportsbooks have changed since then due to great or poor play, injuries or simply bets coming in.
As you can see on the odds per dollar tab, there are some outstanding plays. But, we can only play so many of the stars because they are expensive. For this specific article, I’ll use that criteria, but I’ll also use other statistical factors or influences that could play into their rounds this weekend. You’ll also notice I don’t care about using guys who haven’t won a major. That’s a false notion.
For the sake simplicity, I’ll refer to stars as anyone at $9,900 or above. Yes, there are several “stars” cheaper than that, but it’s mostly subjective and then you get into the mid-tier salary players.
Jordan Spieth $11,900 – Since the $2.2 Millionaire Maker opened, Spieth has finished 1st, 2nd and T2 (lost in a playoff). It’s pretty obvious why Spieth has amazing value. He’ll be highly used, but luckily so will Bubba Watson and Rory McIlroy, and you won’t be able to use two guys at that price without running way too much risk at everyone making the cut.
Dustin Johnson $10,500 – Somehow it seems like no one is talking about Dustin despite that he’s finished T6, 1st and T2 in three of his last four events. He’s first in driving distance and sixth in birdie or better percentage, which is a significant factor at Augusta.
Henrik Stenson $10,100 – His last four finishes are 2nd, 4th, T4 and 2nd. All four of the fields at those tournaments were strong. Stenson’s 122nd ranked driving distance (286.4 yards) is also misleading as he averages 300.4 yards off the tee on the European Tour where he’s played more events. He’s also 19th in birdie or better percentage.
Rory McIlroy $14,900 – Sure, Rory could win. However, he hasn’t been playing his best golf this season. and he quite frankly hasn’t been in contention once. He did win the Omega Dubai Desert Classic, but that was over two months ago in an average field. He should probably be the favorite or one of the favorites, but 5-1 odds is way too much, and it’s quite frankly 5-1 because he’s going for Rory and the career grand slam. He should be closer to 10-1, and I think he’s overpriced as a result.
Adam Scott $10,800 – Three things going against Scott: First, his odds are awful for the price. Second, he’s not playing his best golf this season. Third, he’s going back to the long putter this week, and his inconsistent play is influenced from going back and forth as he gets ready for the rules change.
Bubba Watson – $12,200 – I’m somewhat torn on Bubba, so I’ll break down the pros and cons. Pros: He’s finished no worse than T14 the entire season, second in driving distance and fourth in birdie or better percentage. Cons: His odds aren’t nearly as good as Spieth for the price, the whole lefties do well at Augusta thing is overblown, Bubba hasn’t played a tournament since the first weekend of March and he will be used a ton given he’s the defending champion. Bubba will likely have a very good week, but I don’t expect him to win.
Jason Day – $11,300 – Ranked ninth in driving distance and first in birdie or better percentage, Day has been playing superb golf this year and is the best golfer of the last few years to not win a major. He’s been in contention down the stretch a ton at majors as he’s posted four top-eight finishes in the last two years and seven top-10 finishes in the last four years. Day’s resume at the Masters is T2, WD (was injured most of 2012), 3 and T20. Day has every reason to have an outstanding weekend, but he’s in neutral just because of Spieth’s odds.
Phil Mickelson $9,900 – After missing the cut at the Phoenix Open and the Farmers Insurance Open, Mickelson has put together four made cuts and two top-20 finishes. His game is coming into better form, he’s typically very aggressive at Augusta (still 37th in driving distance and 15th in birdie or better percentage) and has great odds per dollar. However, his odds are often jacked some because he’s Phil and it doesn’t represent his true odds. Jimmy Walker, who is a must-play, has been more expensive than Phil this season, but now Mickelson is $1,000 more expensive for the Masters. With the pros and cons to this, Mickelson is fine to use, but I wouldn’t load up on him.View all posts by Nick Juskewycz